Gas Market
Gas prices rose on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s brief dip, as Israel rejected Iran’s proposal to de-escalate regional tensions and Trumps call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. The July gas contract opened strongly at 90.17p/th, up 1.09p from Monday’s close. Prices continued to climb throughout the day, buoyed by the partial shutdown of Iran’s Pars gas field and increased concerns over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. July peaked at 93.92p/th, while the Winter-25 contract reached an intraday high of 105.10p. Both contracts ended the day below their intraday highs but still posted notable gains. July closed at 92.93p/th, up 3.85p day-on-day, and Winter-25 settled at 104.57p/th up 3.37p. Additional upward pressure came from the European Union’s unveiling of plans to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2028—a plan facing opposition from Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria.
Power Market
All GB baseload power contracts rose on Tuesday, supported by gains in the NBP wholesale gas market. The front-month July contract increased by £1.80/MWh, settling at £82.80/MWh. Meanwhile, the Winter-25 contract closed at £93.25/MWh—its highest level since late February—as persistent tensions in the Middle East continued to influence global energy markets.
In contrast, carbon allowance prices declined. Both UKA and EUA contracts fell during Tuesday’s session. The retreat appears to reflect profit-taking by financial participants, as the recent tightening in global gas supply and demand is expected to have minimal impact on carbon allowance demand.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices climbed more than 4% on Tuesday, driven by the escalating war between Israel and Iran and Trumps call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. The Brent front month contract settled at $76.45 per barrel, marking the highest front-month contract price since February. While the ongoing conflict has not yet disrupted global oil supply significantly, market sentiment has shifted due to rising regional risks. The risk surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increased following reports of a collision between two oil tankers near to the Strait potentially caused by electronic interference attributed to ongoing hostilities. The conflict’s impact on navigation systems—amid the continued missile activity—raises the risk of disruption to the vital waterway which transits approximately a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.
Markets this morning
Gas prices continue to climb this morning amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. The front-month contract has pulled back from its early morning highs, last trading at 93.81p/th after reaching as high as 95.62p. The Winter-25 contract is following a similar path, having peaked at 107.22p and last seen at 105.50p. Meanwhile, oil markets are easing from Tuesday’s highs, with the Brent contract down 80 cents at $75.65/bbl. Oil prices are being weighed down by the balance between ongoing supply risks and anticipation of an upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which could dampen global demand.
18 June 2025
