Gas Market
The NBP wholesale gas market opened sharply lower on Tuesday, following early morning reports that a ceasefire had been agreed between Israel and Iran. The front-month July contract opened at 85.50p/th and held onto those losses throughout the day. Similarly, the Winter-25 contract opened 10.07p lower than Monday’s close and settled at 96.23p/th, maintaining its downward trajectory. Although the ceasefire appeared fragile at times during the day, it eased immediate concerns over potential disruptions to gas supplies—particularly LNG shipments from Qatar, which must transit the strategically sensitive Strait of Hormuz. As a result, prices fell back to levels last seen nearly two weeks ago. Notably, Winter-25 settled below 100p for the first time since 12 June, the day before Israel’s surprise attack on Iran. The impact was also felt on the prompt, with the Day-Ahead contract shedding 12.25p to close at 82.55p/th.
Power Market
Contracts across the GB power curve posted sharp declines on Tuesday, tracking losses in the NBP wholesale gas market following news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The Q3-25 contract fell to £77.75/MWh, its lowest settlement in two weeks, when it closed at £76.25/MWh on 10 June. In contrast, the Day-Ahead power contract surged to £86.75/MWh from £52/MWh. The rally was driven by an updated forecast indicating a sharp drop in wind generation.
European carbon markets continued to defy broader energy market weakness, with EUA prices holding firm amid relatively thin trading. The resilience came despite widespread declines across the wider energy complex
Oil Market
Oil prices continued their downward trend on Tuesday, falling by over 6%, with losses over the past three trading sessions nearing $10 per barrel. Markets opened to news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which initially helped to ease concerns around geopolitical risk. However, the ceasefire appeared fragile within hours of its announcement, as former President Trump accused both sides of breaching its terms. Despite this, oil prices remained subdued throughout the day. The Brent front-month contract settled at $67.14/bbl, marking its lowest level in two weeks. The ceasefire was seen as significantly lowering the risk of disruption to global energy flows, particularly seaborne gas and oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Further downward pressure came from a weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence reading for June. Concerns over the economic outlook have raised the possibility of reduced household spending, which could in turn dampen oil demand.
Markets This Morning
Energy markets are largely holding on to Tuesday’s losses in early trading, as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding into a second day. While reports from the U.S. have cast doubt on the effectiveness of recent strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, this has had little to no impact on energy prices this morning. On the NBP, the July contract last traded at 83.43p/th—up marginally by just over half a penny from Tuesday’s close. Brent crude also showed little movement, last trading at $67.74/bbl. On the gas prompt, UK supply fundamentals remain strong, supporting market confidence that supply is sufficient to meet demand. Day-Ahead and Within-Day contracts are both trading around 83.00p/th, reflecting continued stability.
25 June 2025
