Gas Market
NBP gas prices continued to decline on Friday, rounding off a week of heavy losses. The front-month July contract fell by 2.33p/th on its final trading day, settling at 76.81p/th, a level last seen in early May. Over the week, the July contract dropped 19.38p/th (or 20.30%) since Monday’s close, as the risk premium tied to Middle East tensions faded. Weak seasonal demand, robust supply from both the North Sea and LNG, and healthy prompt fundamentals put further downward pressure on prices. However, storage levels, still about 19% lower than this time last year, continue to provide some underlying support. On the prompt market, the day-ahead price fell 1.2p to close at 77.3p/th, mirroring the weaker forward curve.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices moved lower along the curve on Friday, mirroring weakness in the gas market. The Q3-25 contract fell by £0.63 to settle at £73.53/MWh, marking a sharp 13.85% decline over the week. Despite these declines on the forward curve, prompt power prices surged. The day-ahead contract jumped 32.79% to £82/MWh, driven by lower wind generation forecasts that tightened short-term supply.
EUA prices rebounded modestly after touching a nearly four-week low, trimming the weekly loss to 2.8%. Support came from bullish trading positions and a boost from record-high US equity markets, even as European gas prices continued to soften amid improved supply conditions. The Carbon spot price gained 50c to €70.08/ tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices edged higher on Friday, recovering from midday losses triggered by reports that OPEC+ plans to raise production in August. Brent crude for August delivery settled at $67.77 per barrel, up 4 cents on the day. Friday’s modest price recovery was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, signs of stronger demand, including reports of larger-than-expected draws on U.S. inventories and rising demand in China. Despite this slight gain, prices posted a sharp weekly decline of about 12%, the largest drop since March 2022, as markets largely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premium tied to recent Middle East tensions. OPEC+ is reportedly set to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar planned boost in July, continuing the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts.
Markets this morning
Near-month NBP contracts are down an average of 0.98p/th so far this morning after a mostly uneventful weekend. Waning geopolitical concerns and soft market fundamentals continue to weigh on prices, with the Winter-25 contract hovering just above 90p, currently down 0.47p at 90.72p/th. Wind power generation has eased from very high levels, returning to normal today and expected to be below normal for most of the week, which should help limit losses on the prompt. Power markets are reacting in a similarly muted way. Meanwhile, oil prices are flat, with the front-month contract down just 2 cents.
30 June 2025
