With the geopolitical landscape remaining largely unchanged, NBP near and far curve contracts traded sideways on Friday.

Gas Market 

NBP prices traded sideways on Friday with the near months closing a touch below their previous settlements. Movement was muted across the market after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was disappointed with a phone call he had with Russian President Putin, who reinstated his disinterest in stopping Russia’s war against Ukraine. With the geopolitical outlook largely unchanged, the front month contract shed 0.32p to close at 79.59p per therm. Further along the curve contracts closed in positive territory, although gains were similarly muted, with the Winter 25 closing up by just 0.02p per therm. The Spot and prompt market were also flat, with the Within day contract posting a 0.10p day-on-day loss, while the Day ahead contract shed 0.15p to close out the week at 78.00p per therm.

Power Market

Modest weakness across the NBP near months coupled with bearish weather forecasts for the first half of August weighed on the GB Baseload front month contract on Friday. The August 25 contract fell by £0.42/MWh to close at £72.58/MWh. The prompt market was also in moderate decline on the day, with the Day ahead contract shedding 4.95% day-on-day due to well above-average solar and wind production forecasts for this week and next. The U.S. holiday had a quietening effect on carbon markets on Friday, while a modest softening of prices across gas and power provided some downside. December 25 European Allowances shed €0.53 to close at €71.70 a tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices dipped slightly on Friday, pressured by expectations that OPEC+ producers would decide over the weekend to raise output from August. Further downside came from reports that Iran had reaffirmed its commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The treaty aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology and promotes cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Representatives from the United States are expected to meet with Iranian leaders this week to re-engage nuclear discussions. The front month Brent contract fell by 50 cents to close at $68.30 a barrel, while its WTI counterpart settled at $66.50 a barrel having shed 50 cents day-on-day also.

Markets this morning

Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on trade tariffs announced on April 2nd will come to an end on Wednesday, with markets remaining tentative to any further developments. So far this morning, NBP prices are flat despite an announcement from Trump saying that he will impose an additional 10% tariff on the BRICS group of developing nations. The front month contract last went through at 79.75p, a gain of just 0.16p on Friday’s close. Crude oil prices are so far stable after OPEC+ hiked oil output for August more than expected. The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth and oil demand will also be key to oil price direction this week. The front month Brent contract last went through at $68.63 a barrel, up 33 cents day-on-day.