Gas Market
NBP gas prices declined on Thursday, reversing the previous day’s gains as Norwegian supply rebounded. Flows through the Langeled pipeline were revised up by 26 mcm/d following a sharp drop caused by an unplanned outage at Nyhamna. The front-month August contract fell by 1.58p to settle at 82.09p/therm, while the Day-Ahead contract also eased, closing at 82.85p/therm, down 0.8p. Although supply disruptions are easing, with the system recovering from outages at both Nyhamna and Kollsnes, European gas storage levels, currently at 63.88% full, remain well below last year’s levels, helping to limit further price declines.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices moved lower on Thursday in line with gas, with the front-month contract falling by £1.70 (2.3%) to £73.75/MWh. In contrast, weak renewable generation, particularly wind output averaging just 4.4GW, provided support to prompt prices, pushing the Day-Ahead contract up 3.47% to £89.50/MWh.
In carbon markets, EU Allowance prices declined for a second consecutive session, pressured by strong selling both early in the day and ahead of settlement. The Dec-25 EUA contract dropped 1.1% to settle at €70.55. UK Allowances also edged lower, giving back some of Wednesday’s gains by falling 03% to £51.01/tonne, as carbon markets continued to decouple from broader energy trends.
Oil Market
Oil prices climbed on Thursday, with front-month Brent crude rising by $1.00, or 1.46%, to settle at $69.52 a barrel. The gains followed a fourth consecutive day of drone strikes on oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan, which have disrupted between 140,000 and 150,000 barrels per day of production, more than half the region’s typical output, according to energy officials. Iran-backed militias are believed to be behind the attacks, highlighting the persistent geopolitical risk in the region. Further supporting prices, U.S. crude inventories declined by 3.9 million barrels last week, well above the expected draw of 552,000 barrels. Despite the bullish fundamentals, near-term oil markets are likely to remain volatile amid ongoing uncertainty over the scope of upcoming U.S. tariffs and their potential drag on global economic growth.
Markets this morning
Brent crude is trading slightly higher, up 23 cents at $69.75/bbl, following news that the European Union has agreed on an 18th sanctions package against Russia. The measures target Russia’s oil and energy sectors, including a reduction in the G7 crude oil price cap to $47.60/bbl, signalling continued pressure on Russian revenues. Gas markets are muted in early trading, with near curve contracts up just 0.4p/therm on average. While the outages at Nyhamna (50mcm/d) and Kollsnes (42mcm/d) are still expected to end tomorrow, the impact on flows has not yet fully materialized. Further drops in nominations today are possible, which could add to the tightening European supply outlook.
18 July 2025
