NBP gas prices posted a third consecutive day of gains on Tuesday, with the near months up by an average of 3.6% on heightened geopolitical tensions.

Gas Market

NBP gas prices posted a third consecutive day of gains on Tuesday, with the near months up by an average of 3.6% on heightened geopolitical tensions. The market was supported by U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed pressure on President Putin, threatening secondary sanctions on Russia unless progress towards an end to the war in Ukraine is made. The front month contract posted a 2.95p gain to settle at 82.63p per therm, while the Winter 25 contract increased by 2.40p to close the session at 93.77p per therm. Numerous maintenance outages put pressure on the GB system which was operating in a short position throughout the day, which fed into gains on the Spot. The Within day contract increased by 3.65p day-on-day to close at 83.15p per therm.

Power Market

The GB Baseload front month contract was supported by bullish weather forecasts of well above average temperatures and below average wind levels over the first half of August. Further along the near curve, gains across the NBP gas market provided upside, with the Winter 25 contract posting an increase of £1.65/MWh to close at £86.63/MWh. The Day ahead contract shed modest value, with downward revisions in solar output keeping the prompt market elevated. Strong gains across energy commodity markets on Tuesday supported European carbon markets, with the EUA Dec-25 contract increasing by 3.2% to close at €73.25 a tonne.

Oil Market

Further trade war relief and U.S. pressure on Russia supported crude oil prices on Tuesday, with the front month Brent contract gaining 3.5% day-on-day. The trade agreement reached recently between the U.S. and the E.U. avoided an all-out trade war between the two major economies and provided an increased level of certainty over the outlook for fuel demand. Donald Trump has also upped the pressure on Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine. The U.S. President has threatened sanctions on both Russia and buyers of its exports unless progress is made towards peace. Brent for September delivery posted an increase of $2.47 on its previous close to settle at $72.51 a barrel, its highest settlement in over 5 weeks.

Markets this morning

After beginning the session in positive territory, the NBP near curve changed direction early on. On its last day trading as the front month contract before it expires, August 25 last went through at 82.00p per therm, a day-on-day decline of 0.63p. A decline in gas-for-power and domestic demand levels coupled with healthy Norwegian flows should weigh on the prompt market. Oil prices have eased somewhat this morning as the market awaits further developments with respect to Trump’s tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. The front month Brent contract last went through at $72.32 a barrel, down 19 cents on the previous close.