NBP contracts were lifted on Monday due to system restraints and reduced levels of storage injection rates

Gas Market

NBP contracts were lifted on Monday due to system restraints and reduced levels of storage injections, with the near months gaining an average of 1.41p day-on-day. A drop in flows into the U.K. from Norway due to a compressor failure at Ormen Lange restricted supply levels via the Langeled pipeline and hampered storage injection rates. European storage levels currently sit at 71.96%, an increase of 2.0% week-on-week but still 15.4% lower year-on-year. After starting the week off below Friday’s close, the front month contract gained value throughout the session to close at 81.25p per therm, a gain of 1.72p. An increase in gas-for-power demand due to reduced wind generation forecasts put additional pressure on the system, adding to the upside on the Spot and prompt. The Day ahead contract gained 3.10p day-on-day to settle at 80.50p per therm.

Power Market

Lower wind levels coupled with warmer than normal temperatures elevating cooling demand supported the GB Baseload prompt market on Monday. The Day ahead contract increased by 5.0% day-on-day to end the session at £86.17/MWh. Further out, near curve contracts followed the upward moves seen on the NBP gas curve, with the front month contract closing at £78.38/MWh, having gained £1.13/MWh by the close. Strong selling interest fed into the downside seen across European carbon markets on Monday, although losses were curbed by gains across gas and power markets. The EUA Dec-25 contract fell by €0.97 to close the session at €72.24 a tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices traded sideways on Monday, with markets having a tepid response to news that Russia and the U.S. would be meeting later this week to discuss peace in Ukraine. Donald Trump is expected to meet with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war, although confidence in any progress being made remains low. The talks follow increased U.S. pressure on Russia, with enhanced penalties on Moscow being enforced if a peace deal is not reached. The front month Brent contract posted a 4 cent day-on-day gain to close out the session at $66.63 a barrel. Meanwhile, the WTI contract for September delivery closed at $63.96, an increase of just 8 cent on the previous settlement.

Markets This Morning

The NBP curve has eased back this morning from yesterday’s close, with the front month contract most recently going through at 80.45p per therm, down 0.80p day-on-day. The GB system is coping well and is currently showing a surplus, despite the ongoing domestic production problems at Ormen Lange and St Fergus. Losses across the prompt will be mitigated however by the bleak outlook for wind generation over the coming days in conjunction with a spike in temperatures driving up cooling demand levels. Crude oil prices are up slightly so far this morning after the U.S. and China extended a pause on higher tariffs, easing economic concerns. The front month Brent contract last went through at $66.82 a barrel, up just 19 cents day-on-day.