Gas Market
NBP curve contracts reversed Monday’s gains on Tuesday, returning to levels in line with Friday’s close, with Winter-25 settling at 87.53p/th. Monday’s strength had been driven by rising European temperatures, which lifted gas-for-power demand amid heavier air conditioning loads. However, forecasts suggested Tuesday would mark the peak of the heatwave, with temperatures expected to moderate in the coming days. Geopolitical sentiment also weighed on prices, as optimism grew over potential progress in the Ukraine conflict ahead of the planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Russia. On the prompt, prices eased as two unplanned North Sea gas field outages were set to be resolved, with both facilities expected to return to production on Wednesday.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices declined on Tuesday after a downward revision to temperature forecasts suggested cooling demand could ease over the coming week. While front-month prices fell, day-ahead contracts remained firm, supported by ongoing cooling demand and below-average wind generation. Along the curve, prices tracked NBP losses, with Winter-25 settling at £82.70/MWh.
Correlations between carbon and the broader energy complex—including TTF gas and Brent crude—remain low as the ETS surrender deadline approaches. The spot EUA contract fell to €70.81/t, with losses driven by speculation surrounding the upcoming Russia–US summit scheduled for Friday
Oil Market
Crude prices declined on Tuesday, with Brent front-month futures falling $0.51 to $66.12 per barrel, and WTI contracts dropping $0.79 to $63.17/bbl. The weakness came ahead of the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory reports, with markets anticipating data to indicate falling oil demand. Sentiment was further pressured by forecasts for weaker consumption over the next six weeks as the U.S. summer driving season—and its associated gasoline demand boost—draws to a close. Additionally, OPEC’s monthly report, released Tuesday, added to the bearish tone. The report projected higher crude production in 2025, although the group expects global demand growth to resume in 2026.
Markets This Morning
NBP curve contracts have opened strongly, with the front month trading over 1p higher than Tuesday’s settlement. Prices are supported by overnight comments from the White House press secretary, which have tempered expectations ahead of Friday’s Trump–Putin meeting. Prompt gas contracts remain volatile, with temperatures forecast to fall to seasonal norms next week, while low wind generation is expected to persist through the remainder of the week. On oil markets, Brent front-month continues to decline following the EIA’s weekly report, which forecasts oil prices falling below $60/bbl by year-end and averaging $50/bbl in 2026.
13 August 2025
