Trade was choppy across the NBP gas market on Wednesday, with many curve contracts fluctuating above and below their previous close.

Gas Market

Trade was choppy across the NBP on Wednesday, with many curve contracts fluctuating above and below their previous settlements throughout the session. Ultimately, prices remained flat day-on-day as the market appeared unperturbed by heightened geopolitical tensions driven by Israel’s airstrike targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar as well as the large-scale drone attack by Russia against western Ukraine. The front month contract gained just 0.31p day-on-day to close at 81.09p per therm. The GB system was well supplied throughout the session despite rising demand levels caused by falling temperatures. The Within day contract fell by 1.13p day-on-day to settle at 80.59p per therm. Strong wind output levels forecast for the rest of the week ensured the Day ahead contract also fell back, with the contract ending the day at 80.70p per therm, down a modest 0.10p.

Power Market

The GB Baseload power curve moved sideways on Wednesday, with the front month contract displaying a minor loss by the close, while the rest of the near months posted modest gains. The October 25 contract closed at £75.88/MWh, a day-on-day decline of £0.13/MWh. Downside was more apparent on the prompt due to well-above average wind and solar output forecast for the rest of the week. The Day ahead contract shed 38.1% to end the session at £47.22/MWh. European carbon markets hit a 7-month high yesterday despite high levels of selling. European Allowances for Dec 25 increased by €0.45 to close the session at €77.25 a tonne.

Oil Market

Simmering geopolitical unrest drove up crude oil markets on Wednesday. The Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital of Doha, as well as Poland shooting down Russian drones following an attack on western Ukraine spawned renewed supply disruption concerns. A push from the U.S. to impose new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil compounded the upside, with the front month Brent contract gaining $1.10 by the close to settle at $67.49 a barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India, both major buyers of Russia oil, as a strategy to pressure Moscow to enter peace talks with Ukraine. The front month WTI contract similarly increased by $1.04 to close at $63.67 a barrel.

Markets This Morning

After opening higher than yesterday’s close, NBP prices have eased lower this morning, with the front month contract last going through at 80.61p per therm. With news that the European Union is currently preparing its 19th package of sanctions against Russia with the aim to end all Russian oil and gas imports by January 1st, 2028, downside beyond the near curve is more muted. Rising domestic demand levels combined with an expected decline in Norwegian imports from tomorrow due to the impact of a rescheduled outage at Oseberg as well as the full unplanned shutdown of the Dvalin facility could provide upside on the prompt. Oil prices have eased slightly this morning on worries over softening U.S. demand and oversupply risks.