Gas Market
NBP gas prices eased on Monday, with the October front month settling 1.62p lower at 78.54p/th
and Winter-25 down 1.17p at 85.33p/th. EU storage levels reached 80% of capacity over the
weekend, supported by strong injections since April that have reduced the storage deficit versus the
three-year average from nearly 20 bcm in spring to around 10 bcm by early September, providing
reassurance ahead of winter. Norwegian imports remain steady as maintenance winds down, while
wind generation is currently well above average at 14.3 GW, limiting gas-for-power demand.
Meanwhile, a fourth cargo from Arctic LNG 2 was discharged at the Chinese port of Beihai,
highlighting China’s willingness to ignore sanctions and adding downward pressure on LNG prices by
easing competition.
Power Market
GB baseload forward prices were mostly lower on Monday, tracking weakness in NBP gas, aside
from the Dec-25 contract which rose 1.82% to £85.25/MWh. Prompt contracts also strengthened,
with the day-ahead supported by a downward revision in wind forecasts. Generation is expected to
fall from 14.3 GW to 8 GW by the end of the week, driving a 96.55% day-on-day increase in the day-
ahead, albeit from a low base.
European carbon prices climbed sharply in the afternoon session, bringing them close to a seven-
month high. The Dec-25 EUA contract settled 1.57% higher at €76.89/tonne while the 25-UKA
finished 1% higher at £56.77/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices firmed on Monday as markets weighed the impact of renewed geopolitical tensions. Brent
crude for the front month settled 45 cents higher at $67.44/bbl, supported by reports that a
Ukrainian drone strike had forced the shutdown of a key processing unit at Russia’s Kirishi refinery,
impacting 355,000 bpd of Russian crude. Additional upside came as U.S. President Trump urged
NATO members to halt Russian oil purchases, signalling that Washington may impose further
sanctions if allies adopted similar measures. Gains were tempered by weaker Chinese economic
data, though refinery demand in China last month and a draw in U.S. crude stocks provided some
additional support.
Markets this morning
Energy markets opened softer this morning as strong supply fundamentals and mild weather
continues to weigh on sentiment. The NBP front month slipped 1.01p to 77.55p/th, with increasing
storage levels reinforcing confidence in a stable supply outlook. Brent crude last traded 39c lower at
$67.05/bbl, as markets assess the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes alongside the prospect of a U.S.
central bank interest rate cut, which could reduce borrowing costs and boost fuel demand. Ukraine’s
strike on Russia’s export terminal Primorsk is aimed more at limiting Russia’s ability to sell its oil
abroad, suggesting a growing willingness of Ukraine to disrupt international oil markets.
16 September 2025
