There was little day-on-day movement seen on the NBP curve by the close on Wednesday with market fundamentals remaining stagnant.

Gas Market

NBP prices continued to edge sideways on Wednesday with market fundamentals remaining stagnant amidst an uncertain geopolitical outlook and an otherwise stable supply scenario. The front month contract edged up by 0.22p to close at 79.52p per therm while the November contract closed flat against its previous close at 84.35p per therm. Despite a fall from recent well-above-normal levels, wind generation was forecast to remain above average. The high levels of renewables in the generation mix was helping to mitigate the impact of ongoing Norwegian maintenance outages, with the Day ahead contract shedding 0.15p by the close to settle at 78.60p per therm. Despite an oversupplied GB system the Within day contract posted a 0.33p day-on-day gain to close at 78.90p per therm.

Power Market

GB baseload near months tracked movements across the NBP gas market on Wednesday, with the front month contract edging up by £0.85/MWh to settle at £75.35/MWh. Further out, day-on-day changes were more muted, with the Winter 25 contract posting a gain of just £0.10/MWh. High wind output levels forecast for today hampered any increases on the prompt, with the Day ahead contract falling by 30.03% to end the day at £51.43/MWh. European carbon prices stayed within touching distance of their recent 7-month highs on Wednesday. Further buying activity and increased long positions ensured markets remained elevated despite modest day-on-dad declines. European allowances for Dec 25 fell by 59 cents to close at €76.90 a tonne.

Oil Market

Oil futures narrowly closed below their previous settlement on Wednesday, with ongoing concerns relating to Russian supply risk and U.S. demand remaining focal points. As increased OPEC+ output continued to hamper gains, markets were yesterday cognisant of the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting, which was due to conclude on Wednesday and where the central bank was expected to cut interest rates. Lower interest rates are generally price supportive for oil markets as they tend to stimulate economic activity and increase fuel demand growth. The front month Brent contract for November delivery shed 52 cents by the close to settle at $67.95 a barrel.

Markets this morning

The NBP curve is trading marginally higher this morning, with the October front month contract last going through at 80.13p per therm, up 0.61p on last nights’ close. Higher gas for power demand levels forecast from tomorrow are supporting the Day ahead contract, which last posted a premium of 1.10p per therm on Wednesday’s close. With the GB system currently undersupplied, the Within day contract may also see day-on-day gains as the session progresses. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday, although this has had little impact on crude oil prices, as yet. Oil futures continue to focus on concerns around the U.S. economy and excess supplies.