Gas and Power Ease on Stronger Supply; Carbon and Oil Slip Amid Profit Taking and OPEC+ Output Growth

Gas Market

NBP contracts eased on Monday, with the front month down 1.00p at 79.05p/therm and Winter-25 falling 1.27p to 84.74p/therm. Norwegian flows strengthened as Langeled ramped up by 10mcm and an unplanned outage at Oseberg was resolved, reinforcing the healthy supply backdrop. Steady LNG arrivals also limited upside potential, with seven cargoes scheduled to land in the Netherlands this week. EU storage levels climbed to 81.85%, boosting confidence ahead of the winter period. Offsetting further declines on the near curve, forecasts for low wind generation and colder temperatures, 1–3°C below seasonal norms, supported gas-for-power demand and lifted the Day-Ahead by 0.38p to 79.98p/therm.

Power Market

Most GB Baseload contracts moved lower on Monday in line with weaker gas prices, though the Day-Ahead rose 11% to £92.15/MWh. The gain reflected forecasts for low wind output on Tuesday alongside colder temperatures, averaging 1–3°C below normal, which lifted heating demand and supported spot prices. Further along the curve, the Winter-25 contract eased £0.85 to £83.18/MWh. Carbon prices slipped on Monday as profit taking and softer gas markets ended last week’s rally. The benchmark Dec-25 EUA contract fell €1.28, or 1.65%, to settle at €76.25/tonne. This pullback followed a sharp rise from €71.60 at the end of August to €78.45 last week, with Monday’s decline largely attributed to selling pressure after the recent highs.

Oil Market

Oil prices edged lower on Monday as oversupply concerns outweighed geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East. Front-month Brent crude settled 11 cents down at $66.57/bbl, keeping within the recent $65.50–$69 traded range seen since early August. Supply pressures persisted as OPEC+ output rose, with Iraq signalling further export growth and Kuwait’s production capacity assessed at 3.2mn bpd, its highest in over a decade. Geopolitical tensions heightened over the weekend, with several Western nations recognising a Palestinian state and Estonia reporting Russian fighter jets violating its airspace, but no immediate disruption to oil supply emerged.

Markets This Morning

The NBP gas market opened slightly firmer this morning, with near-curve contracts up an average of 0.34p/therm. Gains reflected stable supply conditions balanced against forecasts for lower wind generation through the week, while geopolitical risks continued to influence sentiment as the EU considers stricter sanctions on Russian LNG and oil exports. Oil prices extended losses into a fifth session on Tuesday, pressured by oversupply concerns after Iraq and the Kurdish regional government reached a preliminary agreement to restart a key pipeline. Front-month Brent crude last traded 18c lower at $66.39/bbl.