Winter-25 gained 0.93p to settle at 85.67p/th, though both front-season and Summer-26 remain range-bound

Gas Market

NBP prompt contracts firmed on Tuesday as colder-than-normal temperatures lifted heating demand, coinciding with unplanned outages at Norway’s Skarv and Troll gas fields. The tighter UK system kept supply and demand finely balanced, with strength on the prompt feeding into the near curve. The Winter-25 contract rose 0.93p to 85.67p/th, though both the front season and Summer-26 remain range-bound. Since breaking below 90p on 7 August, Winter-25 has traded within a narrow 84.0–89.0p band, while Summer-26, below 80p/th since the same date, has oscillated between 75.5–80.0p/th, settling at 78.94p on Tuesday.

Power Market

The GB baseload Day-ahead contract eased on Tuesday, diverging from gains in the equivalent NBP gas product, as forecasts pointed to stronger wind generation from Wednesday. On the curve, baseload power followed NBP higher, with the Winter-25 contract settling at £83.75/MWh, a day-on-day gain of £0.58. Similar to gas, the winter contract has been range-bound since 7 August, trading between £80–85/MWh. EUA prices rebounded on Tuesday after Monday’s losses, with gains appearing closely linked to strength in European gas markets. Gas-driven support lifted allowances despite prices already trading at elevated levels relative to current gas fundamentals.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices rose 1.59%, settling at $67.63/bbl on Tuesday after a deal to restart exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region stalled. Traders had been wary that additional Iraqi supply would worsen oversupply concerns already weighing on the market. Pipeline exports of the Kurdish oil to Turkey remain halted despite earlier optimism, as two key producers demanded debt repayment guarantees before flows resume. The agreement had aimed to restore about 203,000 bpd to global supply. The IEA had earlier this month warned of a surplus stretching into 2026, but the Kurdistan setback—together with EU discussions on tighter sanctions against Russian crude—helped ease near-term oversupply fears.

Markets This Morning

The NBP gas market has opened in negative territory once again this morning as the directionless market continues to oscillate in its recent traded range. The winter-25 contract last trading at 85.16p/th is back to within 1.5% of its recent 18-month low. Prompt prices have also retreated this morning with supply outstripping demand as gas for power generation is set to fall over the coming days. Oil is continuing its recovery with the front month contract increasing by $0.25/bbl in early trading. A recent report by the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. stockpiles declined lasty week providing support to the commodity.