Brent settled at a near two-month high on Friday with supply cut fear from Russia feeding the recovery in prices

Gas Market

The GB gas market remained rangebound on Friday with futures and prompt prices posting slight gains after moving sideways for much of the session.  Some support for the prompt came from subdued forecasts for wind which added to gas demand on Friday and the weekend. The Spot settled 0.30p per therm up while the Day ahead price for Monday was over a penny higher as wind is expected to drop well below recent averages next week. The front month closed with a gain of 0.39p which left the contract 1.40p higher for the week. The Winter-25 contract settled at 86.57p, adding 0.42p day-on-day or just over a half a penny for the last five days. These two contracts along with the final quarter for 2025 saw the lion’s share of activity on the day as all three are due to expire on the ICE platform on Monday.

Power Market

GB baseload power prices eased on Friday bucking the trend witnessed in the gas and carbon markets. Early losses to the NBP curve pressured the near power curve and while NBP futures switched tack, power futures were marked lower at the close.  Losses on the day were less than £0.40/MWh save for the front month which shed £1.15/MWh leaving the October contract £1.20/MWh down week-on-week. Forecasts for well below average wind generation boosted prompt prices with baseload for the Day ahead rising over 20.0% to £81.67/MWh. Carbon EUAs regained most of the previous session’s losses on Friday as contracts out to Dec-2027 rose by an average of 0.48%.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices continued to edge higher on Friday with fears of supply cuts following the drone attacks on Russian refineries which forced Russia to cut back on exports. Brent settled at it’s highest level since the end of July adding 71 cents to settle at $70.13 a barrel. The partial ban on diesel exports announced late of Thursday is an attempt to hold supplies while refining capacity recovers after the attacks and is to run until the end of the year. Supplies from Iraq’s Kurdish region are set to return this weekend with oil pipeline flows to the Turkish Ceyhan port and the market will watch to see the level of supplies arriving at the Mediterranean port this week.

Markets this morning

UK gas contracts opened lower this morning with October falling to 79.96p per therm however, latest trades for the outgoing front month are above the morning low at 80.55p. The Winter-25 contract is almost a penny down this morning at 85.60p on its final day of trading as the front season. Prompt prices are flat, and the GB gas system is operating in equilibrium with gas demand for today up at 189mcm to compensate for the reduced wind generation in the power stack.  Crude oil prices have reversed Friday’s gains with reports that crude oil flows have restarted from Iraq’s Kurdish region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Brent last traded at $69.24 a barrel, down 89 cents. Find out more about our Commercial Energy Services “Read more carbon market news in our Insights section.” “Learn how Kore Energy can help you to develop a sustainable energy management system