Gas Market
NBP gas prices eased on Monday as the expiry of Oct-25, Q4-25 and Winter-25 contracts closed lower against a backdrop of stable fundamentals and steady LNG arrivals. European storage remains comfortable at 82.3% heading into October, while three LNG cargoes are scheduled to land in the UK over the coming weeks. With Asian demand still muted, Europe continues to draw strong supply from the global LNG market. The new front month November contract shed 1.58p to 83.82p/therm, while expectations of above-normal temperatures and higher wind generation through the week reduced system strain, pushing the day-ahead price 1.75p lower to 79p/therm.
Power Market
GB power prices moved lower on Monday in line with weakness in gas, with the sharpest declines seen on the expiring Oct-25 contract, down £2.93 (3.93%). Q4-25 shed £1.77 (2.2%) and Winter-25 eased £1.18 (1.42%), compared with a smaller £0.80/MWh (0.96%) drop on the new front month November to £82.9/MWh. The Day-ahead fell steeply, down 10.66% to £88/MWh, as forecasts pointed to much stronger wind generation through the week.
In contrast, carbon prices rallied after a second consecutive auction cleared at a notable premium, sparking intraday gains of around €1 despite broader energy weakness. Dec-25 EUAs settled 1.03% higher at €76.75/tonne, while 2025 UKAs climbed 83p, or 1.5%, to £55.38/tonne
Oil Market
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, with Brent crude sliding $2.16, or 3.1%, to settle at $67.97 a barrel as supply concerns came back into focus. Market sentiment turned bearish ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to confirm an output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November in a bid to regain market share. The outlook was further weighed by the resumption of crude flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region through Turkey for the first time in over two years, a move that could eventually add up to 230,000 barrels per day to international markets. The shift toward supply growth marks a reversal from last week, when Brent and WTI climbed more than 4% on fears that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure would curtail exports.
Markets this morning
Energy markets extended Monday’s losses this morning, with near-curve NBP contracts down an average of 1.12p/therm. Mild temperatures are keeping gas demand subdued, while supply remains stable. In Britain, peak wind generation is forecast at 8.4 GW today and expected to rise to 12.1 GW on Wednesday, further reducing gas-for-power demand. Oil prices also remain under pressure, with Brent crude down 53c at $67.44/bbl. The prospect of an OPEC+ output increase and the resumption of Kurdish oil exports via Turkey continue to weigh on sentiment, adding to Monday’s sharp declines when Brent and WTI both fell more than 3%, their steepest daily drop since 1 August.
30 September 2025
