Gas Market
NBP curve products extended Monday’s losses on Tuesday, with near months shedding an average of 3.11p per therm day-on-day. Heading into the winter season, supply fundamentals remained stable alongside healthy storage levels, which alleviated risk and fed into the downside. Storage levels currently sit at 82.6%, with further injections expected in the coming days due to milder weather and low gas-for-power demand. The new front month contract, November 25, shed 3.27p to settle at 80.55p per therm. The warmer temperatures and strong renewable generation forecasts played into the weakness observed across the prompt. The Day ahead contract shed 2.90p to close the session at 76.10p per therm, while Within day moved down by 1.40p to settle at 78.00p per therm.
Power Market
GB Baseload futures contracts fell for a third straight session on Tuesday, driven down by weakness seen on the NBP gas curve. On its final day trading as the front month, the October 25 contract shed £0.13/MWh to close at £71.45/MWh. Well above average wind generation levels forecast for the rest of the week weighed on the prompt. High solar output levels added to the downside with the Day ahead contract posting a 7.1% loss to close at £81.59/MWh.
Bearish sentiment seen across natural gas markets on Tuesday pulled carbon prices lower. Dec 25 European Allowances shed €0.98 day-on-day to close at €75.77 a tonne. Uk Allowances experienced similar downside, with Dec 25 posting a £0.74 a tonne loss day-on-day.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices shed further value on Tuesday, continuing losses seen at the start of the week. Supply surplus concerns in light of potential OPEC+ plans for a larger output hike next month weighed on markets. OPEC+ could agree to speed up production increases in November from the 137,000 barrels per day hike it made for October, as Saudi Arabia pushes to regain market share. Adding to the downside was the news that oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey had resumed over the weekend, easing supply concerns. The front month Brent contract fell by $0.95 to settle the day at $67.02 a barrel. Meanwhile, the WTI contract for November delivery shed $1.08 to close at $62.37 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Losses continue across the NBP this morning, with the November 25 contract last going through at a 1.05p discount to yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, on the prompt, activity is quiet so far. A period of above-normal winds is forecast to last between now and Monday, while the recent warmer temperatures are also set to continue, which should hamper short-term gains. Crude oil prices are also in negative territory this morning as markets continue to assess the potential impact of the OPEC+ plans for a significant output hike from next month. The front month Brent contact last went through at $65.85 a barrel, down $1.17 on yesterday’s close.
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