Near futures posted the largest one-day gains in six-months yesterday after Russian attacks which targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure

07 October 2025

Gas Market

The gas markets opened firmer on Monday, and gains increased as the market responded to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and reports of an extended outage at Troll.  Near curve contracts yielded most of last week’s losses in one day after Russia stepped up attacks targeting Ukraine’s gas and power grids over the weekend.  The front month added 5.7% or 4.59p per therm, the largest one-day gain since the start of April when the markets responded to reports of Russia’s largest conscription programme in 14 years. Prompt prices realigned with the front of the curve yesterday after low wind forecasts for the next two-weeks while Gassco extended the resolution date of the compressor issue at the Troll field until Wednesday.  The Spot gained 13.95p while the Day ahead product added 14.25p and settled at its highest level since the last week in June.

Power Market

The sharp gains witnessed in the gas and carbon market fed into GB baseload futures on Monday. The front month settled £3.68/MWh higher at £85.40/MWh while the front season, Summer-26 was assessed at £73.58/MWh, up £1.38/MWh. Carbon prices also firmed early on Monday as buying activity increased with the Dec-25 for EUAs contract peaking at €80.04/ tonne. However, there was some resistance and direction switched again as sellers returned to the market. EUAs settled an average of 66 cent per tonne down while UKAs also ended the session lower by £0.75/ tonne on average.  Forecasts for reduced wind and sharp gains to NBP prompt supported the Day ahead which added £22.08/MWh yesterday.

Oil Market

137,000 barrel per day in November, which was less than expected by the market which left crude oil prices almost a dollar higher. It’s believed that Saudi Arabia had wanted more of an increase in output but yielded to appeals from Russia to avoid pressuring prices. This increase announcement coincides with increased oil exports from Venezuela and also a resumption in Kurdish crude oil flows from Northern Iraq to Turkey.  Venezuela’s exports have risen above 1m barrel per day for the first time in over five-years. As the two-year anniversary of Hamas attacks approaches, representatives from Israel and Hamas are to head to Egypt for indirect talks to arrange release of hostages and work out the peace deal proposed by Donald Trump.

Markets this morning

The gas markets are a touch calmer today with near months falling back off the early highs for the morning. The front month, November last traded at 85.34p per therm which is marginally above last night’s close or almost a penny below the high. The Summer-26 contract has edged into negative territory at 78.50p as early gains are reversed along the curve. Prompt prices are stuck on last night’s close and the GB gas system is balanced with demand at 169mcm for today. It’s the second anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel and representatives from the two sides are in Egypt for indirect talks to move forward with Donald Trump’s peace plan. Crude oil prices have traded in a tight range so far with the latest exchange for Brent going through at $65.25 a barrel. Find out more about our Commercial Energy Services “Read more carbon market news in our Insights section.” “Learn how Kore Energy can help you to develop a sustainable energy management system