NBP futures eased for a third day on Friday as weak demand coupled with easing geopolitical tensions as a result of the Gaza ceasefire weighed

Gas Market

Milder temperatures on Friday curbed gas demand across Northern Europe and weighed on prompt and near curve gas prices.  NBP futures opened softer as near months shed around a penny early on, however, some of the losses were reversed through the afternoon session.  Reports that Egypt has postponed LNG deliveries due to weaker demand also weakened prices on the day while easing geopolitical tensions as a result of the Gaza ceasefire deal was bearish for the market. At the close, November was 0.74p per therm down at 82.23p but was 1.65p higher week-on-week.  The Summer-26 contract yielded just over a half a penny on Friday, settling at 76.81p, this cut the gain for the week to 0.54p. On the prompt, the Spot and Day ahead fell by 0.85p and 0.45p respectively while the Balance of Month contract settled 0.80p lower at 81.70p.

Power Market

GB baseload futures tracked movement on the NBP curve on Friday as near curve contracts yielded premium for the most part. The front month declined by £0.50/MWh while the Summer-26 contract settled £0.45/MWh lower.  The only outlier was the December contract which bucked the trend and was marked £0.15/MWh higher. Prompt prices reacted to forecasts for extremely low wind generation and the Day ahead product increased by £17.50/MWh or 20.3% to settle at £103.75/MWh, the highest settlement for the contract since the end of February.  Early gains in the carbon markets were reversed late on Friday leaving EUA contract to settle marginally up on the day. The Spot for European Allowances settled 9 cent up at €79.05 per tonne.

Oil Market

In the crude oil markets, some risk premium added for geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was relinquished on Friday as phase 1 of the Gaza ceasefire commenced. Brent, the global benchmark, shed $2.49 a barrel as the December contract settled at $62.73 a barrel. The contract set a fresh five-month low on hopes that Donald Trump’s peace plan will end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. It is believed hostages will start to be released on Sunday while the ceasefire commenced on Friday. Late on Friday the U.S. president raised concerns for the markets after a post saying he would increase trade tariffs on Chinese imports to 100%. This is said to come in retaliation for China cutting back on exports of its rare earth minerals.

Markets this morning

Donald Trump is in Israel this morning as to coincide with the release of the hostages almost two years after their abduction. The U.S. president made the stop on route to sign the peace agreement in Egypt later today. Crude oil prices have recovered some of Friday’s losses this morning after Trump’s post on Friday saying he would apply 100% trade tariffs on China. Brent for December delivery is trading $1.11 higher at $63.84 a barrel.  Closer to home, NBP futures have continued to weaken this morning with the front month 1.15p per therm down at 81.08p, and contract further out are around a penny lower this morning.  GB gas demand remains subdued as milder temperatures are expected to curb heating load this week.