Gas Market
NBP gas prices extended their downward trend on Monday as mild temperatures and strong LNG send-out offset lower wind generation. The front-month November contract fell 2.02p to 80.21p/therm, while Summer-26 settled down 1.43p at 75.37p/therm, its lowest level since April. UK LNG send-out resumed for the first time since September, with nominations exceeding 44mcm today. Across Europe, LNG imports remain above seasonal averages, keeping storage levels comfortable at 83.14%. LNG supply into Europe continues to outperform the previous four-year highs, while Asian demand remains subdued. U.S. LNG exports were near record levels at 16.55 bcf/day yesterday. Low wind output limited further declines on the prompt, with CCGT generation accounting for roughly two-thirds of UK power output. Nonetheless, overall market bearishness saw the day-ahead contract fall 2.5p to 79.50p/therm.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices fell on Monday, mirroring losses in the gas market as the front-month contract shed £2.30 to £80.70/MWh. Strong gas-for-power demand, driven by weak renewable output of just 4.6 GW, saw CCGT plants provide around two-thirds of UK generation, helping to limit further losses. Despite this, the day-ahead contract fell £5.50 to £98.50/MWh, tracking gas lower amid robust LNG send-out and a softening geopolitical risk premium following the release of the final 20 Israeli hostages and the continuation of the ceasefire.
In carbon, the benchmark Dec-25 EUA contract settled €1.46 lower at €77.89/t, pressured by broader weakness across the energy complex.
Oil Market
Oil prices rebounded on Monday after falling to five-month lows in the previous session, supported by improving sentiment ahead of October talks between the U.S. and Chinese Presidents that could ease trade tensions. Front-month Brent crude rose 59 c, or 0.9%, to $63.32/bbl. Tensions had escalated late last week after China expanded its rare-earth export controls, prompting President Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on Chinese goods bound for the U.S. On the demand side, China’s crude imports climbed 3.9% year-on-year in September to 11.5 million b/d, while OPEC’s latest monthly report indicated a smaller-than-expected supply deficit in 2026 as OPEC+ members prepare to ramp up output. The market also drew support from news that Hamas had released the final 20 Israeli hostages under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal, though traders are waiting to see if the peace lasts before the full risk premium from the conflict fades.
Markets this morning
Gas markets opened steady this morning, with most contracts showing little movement from Monday’s close. The calm follows yesterday’s easing across European hubs, supported by strong LNG send-out and the addition of several cargoes to Europe’s arrival schedule. Forecasts for lower wind generation are expected to lift gas-for-power demand through the week, helping to limit further downside. Oil prices have moved lower on Tuesday amid renewed uncertainty over U.S.–China trade relations. Front-month Brent crude is down $1.36 at $61.96/bbl. In its latest monthly report, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth this year following OPEC+ output increases, while trimming demand growth expectations due to a weaker economic outlook.
14 October 2025
