Gas Market
GB power futures strengthened on Monday, supported by gains in NBP gas and carbon markets. The front-month Baseload contract climbed £1.70 to £82.20/MWh, while the day-ahead jumped 14% to £60.45/MWh amid lower wind generation forecasts. Sentiment across Europe was lifted by reports that Germany plans to subsidise wholesale electricity prices for industrial consumers, driving a broader rally in power markets.
Carbon prices surged, with EUAs hitting a ten-month high as traders covered shorts and weather-driven demand lifted prompt German power and TTF gas. The Dec-25 EUA rose €3.03, or 3.9%, to €81.52/tonne, while UKAs reached a two-year high, with the 2025 contract up £1.55 at £58.06/tonne
Power Market
GB Baseload futures contracts were positive yesterday, finding support from increases in NBP gas and carbon prices. The front month GB Baseload contract rose £1.7 to £82.2/MWh. Lower forecasts for wind generation lifted the prompt, with the day ahead rising 14% to £60.45/MWh. In Europe, a rally was sparked in power prices by reports that Germany plans to subsidise wholesale electricity prices for industrials, adding bullishness to the system.
EUA prices surged to their highest in ten months, amid aggressive buying and short-covering as weather forecasts sparked a jump in prompt German power and TTF gas, amid reports that Germany is set to offer more relief on electricity prices to industry that added to the bullish sentiment, while UKA prices rose to a two-year high with the 2025 UKA up £1.55 to £58.06/tonne. The Dec-25 EUA rose €3.03 or 3.86% to €81.52/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices were steady on Monday as markets weighed OPEC+’s modest December output hike against plans to pause further increases in early 2026. The group agreed to raise production by just 137,000 bpd next month, but signalled no additional increases in the first quarter, helping offset fears of oversupply and weak factory data from Asia. Brent settled 12c higher at $64.89/bbl. A firm U.S. dollar, near a three-month high, limited gains by making crude more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Geopolitical tensions also lingered after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. might deploy troops or launch air strikes in Nigeria, an OPEC member and Africa’s largest oil producer, citing violence against Christians.
Markets this morning
Gas prices rose this morning, with near-curve contracts up an average of 1.33p/therm, supported by stronger gas-for-power demand as wind generation is forecast to remain low throughout the week. A pronounced wind lull is expected over the weekend and into next week, further increasing reliance on gas-fired generation. Carbon prices extended yesterday’s gains, with the Dec-25 EUA up a further 35c to €81.55/t, marking a 23-month high. Oil prices, meanwhile, fell more than 1% on Tuesday as OPEC+’s plan to pause output hikes in early 2026, coupled with weak manufacturing data and a stronger U.S. dollar, weighed on sentiment. Brent was down 87c at $64.02/bbl as of time of writing.
04 November 2025
