On Thursday, NBP curve contracts continued to unwind premium added on Monday and Tuesday, with near months shedding an average of 0.88p by the close

Gas Market

On Thursday, NBP curve contracts continued to unwind premium added on Monday and Tuesday, with near months shedding an average of 0.88p by the close. Healthy European storage levels of 83.02% as well as mild weather conditions have brought early-winter supply confidence to the market, which fed into the downside. The front month contract posted the biggest loss observed across the curve, retreating by 0.92p to close at 82.09p per therm. Across the prompt, sentiment remained weak. With four LNG cargoes expected to arrive into the UK by the end of the week, temperatures remaining mild and wind power output forecast to increase over the coming days, there was little to support short-term prices. Both the Within day and Day ahead contracts fell by 1.55p to close at 74.98p and 75.75p per therm respectively.

Power Market

Downside across the NBP gas market on Thursday fed into losses on the GB Baseload curve for a second day in a row. The front month contract shed £1.22/MWh to settle at £82.25/MWh. Further out, loses were more modest, with the Winter 26 contract closing at a discount of just £0.33/MWh against its previous close. On the prompt, higher wind output forecasts for over the coming days weighed on prices, with the Day ahead contract falling by 5.2% day-on-day to close at £82.77/MWh. European carbon prices continued to fall on Thursday in what appears to be a correction of the gains experienced earlier in the week. European Allowances for Dec 25 delivery shed €1.04 to close at €80.34 a tonne. Meanwhile, UK Allowances for Dec 25 posted a £0.56 day-on-day loss to settle at £56.69 a tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices were flat on Thursday, with supply glut fears being offset by growing concerns around the impact of Russian sanctions. The latest sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies announced two weeks ago were back in focus, sparking concerns of supply disruptions despite rising output from OPEC+ over the past few months. While the potential for oversupply remains a key fundamental of the global oil market, the OPEC+ group’s plan to pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year has diminished those concerns. The front month Brent contract fell by just 14 cents day-on-day to close the session at $63.38 a barrel, while its WTI counterpart closed at $59.43 a barrel having shed 17 cents by the close.

Markets this morning

After opening a touch above their previous close NBP curve contracts have retreated back into negative territory this morning. The front month contract last went through at 81.83p per therm, 0.26p below Thursday’s settlement. Supply fundamentals remain stable today, with a slight reduction in Norwegian exports being offset by higher LNG flows. Gas for power demand levels are flat day-on-day while the recent mild temperatures are set to continue into next week. Oil prices have gained some modest ground this morning, although worries about excess supply and slowing U.S. demand continue to subdue any meaningful upside. The front month Brent contract last went through at $64.20 a barrel, a day-on-day gain of 82 cents.