Crude oil prices opened higher this morning after the U.S. Senate agreed to advance a bill which could reopen the Federal government

Gas Market

Market fundamentals remained unchanged on Friday and after opening slightly higher near NBP futures resumed their recent decline to leave contracts marginally higher week-on-week.  The front month, December, ended the session with a loss just shy of a penny per therm while a little further along the curve, the Summer-26 product eased by 0.56p to settle at 75.08p.  Robust LNG deliveries coupled with mild temperatures provided the comfort to the market on Friday, however, the prompt recovered late in the session as reports of lower wind generation for the week ahead filtered through. At the close, the Day ahead was marked 0.15p higher as were the week ahead and balance of month products.

Power Market

Weaker gas and carbon prices fed into the baseload power curve on Friday. The front month was assessed £1.47/MWh lower at the close which cut the gain for the week to £0.28/MWh. The Summer-26 contract eased by £0.75/MWh day-on-day which left the contract slightly down for the week. A revision to the forecast for wind generation for the week ahead provided late support to the Day ahead product which settled £4.82/MWh higher. Carbon prices eased for a third day on Friday as the energy markets softened. European Allowances for contracts out to Dec-2027 declined by an average of €0.75 per tonne or 0.9%. UKAs fell by over £1.00/ tonne or 2.0% on the day with contracts for 2026 closing at £58.05/ tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices were marginally higher at the close on Friday with late support arriving from hopes that the Hungarian Prime Minister could get an agreement from the White House to continue utilising Russian crude oil.  Hungary has continued its reliance on Russian energy since the war began in February 2022 and the recent sanctions targeting Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft are starting to impact supplies to Hungary. Earlier in the week the EIA reported a larger than expected build in U.S. crude oil reserves which weighed on prices and this build in stocks could be repeated next week. The Federal Aviation Administration has ordered Airlines to cut flights as Air Traffic Controllers fail to show up for shifts due to the government shutdown. At the close, Brent for January delivery was 25 cents up at $63.63 a barrel.

Markets this morning

The U.S. Senate have agreed to advance a bill which could end the federal shutdown and the crude oil markets have responded positively this morning.  Brent is trading 51 cents up at $64.14 a barrel for the January contract while WTI for December delivery has added 56 cents to last trade at $60.31 a barrel.  Closer to home, the gas markets are moving in the opposing direction with December for the NBP down 0.15p to 81.00p per therm while the Summer-26 contract last exchanged at 74.70p, down 0.38p.  The gas system is operating with a strong surplus this morning as demand remains weak at just over 200mcm. LNG send out is close to 60mcm while imports from Norway through the Langeled line are at 66mcm.