Gas Market
The energy markets remained on edge on Thursday morning following the U.S. President’s post in which he declared he had agreed a framework for a future deal on Greenland. Mr Trump apparently had a productive off ramp meeting with the General Secretary of NATO, Mark Rutte on Wednesday evening, but no details were forthcoming. He did say further discussions were required and rowed back on his threats of imposing trade tariffs on European nations that opposed a deal. A severe cold blast is engulfing Northern America and continues to boost front month gas prices at the Henry Hub as February pared back earlier strong gains to 3% yesterday having gained 57% earlier in the week. Concerns the weather could disrupt U.S. LNG exports curbed losses on the NBP yesterday after a volatile morning session. The front month, February, peaked at 110.99p per therm early on but settled over 10.00p below that posting a day-on-day loss of 2.93p. Prompt prices also fell on the day with the Day ahead product down 4.35p as gas fired generators remain stood down due to higher wind while temperatures are to rise.
Power Market
An improved weather forecast weighed on the prompt yesterday save for the Day ahead which was the only outlier on the day. The contract price for Friday bucked the trend and settled almost 10.0% up at £96.49/MWh despite forecasts for increased wind generation. Baseload futures tracked movement on the gas curve and near months reversed some of the previous day’s sharp increases. February, the front month, posted the largest loss closing £3.00/MWh lower.
After a volatile session in the Carbon markets, both EUAs and UKAs settled higher on Thursday. Early volatility stemmed from relief that President Trump had pulled back threats to impose trade tariffs while also declaring a framework for a deal on Greenland was in progress. The market uncertainty left EUAs an average of €1.32 higher yesterday.
Oil Market
An easing of geopolitical risk coupled with a rise in U.S. crude oil reserves pressured crude oil prices on Thursday. With Donald Trump announcing a framework for a deal on Greenland the oil markets appeared to cool down after two days of gains. The U.S. president rowed back on his threats of imposing trade tariffs on European nations following an off-ramp meeting with the General Secretary of NATO, Mark Rutte, on Wednesday evening. Donald Trump also met with the Ukrainian President yesterday and urged him to accept the current deal, but Mr Zelensky later said that while the terms for an agreement had been finalised there’s still the issue of territory. The Energy Information Administration released its weekly oil inventory report yesterday showing U.S. reserves of crude oil increased by 3.6m barrels last week which was higher than expected. At the close, Brent for March delivery was down $1.18 to $64.06 a barrel.
Markets this morning
President Zelensky is to go to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates today to take part in a trilateral meeting with Russian and U.S. delegates. He is hoping the talks will be a step towards peace but there’s still a question of territory and is he willing to yield on this. Crude oil prices have not fallen on the news but instead have increased after the U.S. President turned his attention back to Iran and said warships will arrive in the Middle East in days, renewing fears of disruption to oil supplies in the region. Brent last traded at $64.85, up 79 cents a barrel. In the gas markets, near months are struggling to find direction this morning with February down 0.24p per therm on the last trade. Prompt prices are flat while the GB gas system is forecast long today.
23 January 2026
