West Texas settled at a 9-month high of $46.99 a barrel

Prompt gas prices all gained strongly with spot, day ahead and week ahead contracts up by around 3.00p

With unusually high demand for LNG in Asia, European markets are struggling to price-match to prevent cargoes diverting to the East. LNG send-out in the UK fell off substantially during the trading day yesterday on concerns that fresh cargoes may be diverted. Despite the downturn in LNG send-out, the system still finished in surplus, but prompt gas prices all gained strongly with spot, day ahead and week ahead contracts up by around 3.00p. On the futures market, the Q1 21 contract gained 1.88p to settle above 47.50p while Summer 21 was up 1.03p to 38.10p.

 

The main driver of power prices was again the continuing rise in gas prices

GB baseload power futures surged higher again on Monday raising the front month price by £2.75 to almost £60.00/MWh. The main driver of power prices was again the continuing rise in gas prices, despite a modest decline in carbon prices on the day. EU ETS unit prices eased by 50 cent to settle in a range of €30.00 to €30.50 per tonne. On the prompt market, the day ahead contract fell by almost £20.00 on forecast milder weather and higher wind generation levels. Gas-fired generation fell to average 36% of demand on the day while wind generation made up 25% of the generating stack.  

The oil market has remained rangebound for the past 3 days with Brent crude fluctuating marginally

The oil market has remained rangebound for the past 3 days with Brent crude fluctuating marginally around the $50.00 mark. The global benchmark recovered Friday’s loss, gaining 32 cents to settle at $50.29 a barrel while West Texas settled at a 9-month high of $46.99 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark gained on optimism over vaccinations for Covid-19 and a new economic stimulus. Concerns remain hover as parts of the U.S. and Europe, including Germany and the UK see more restrictions on economic activity coming into force.  

Demand on the UK gas system has increased overnight as wind generation has declined

Demand on the UK gas system has increased overnight as wind generation has declined. The system is forecast 9MCM long against demand of 268MCM this morning. Prompt contracts have yet to trade but near futures continue to gain strongly with the front month and Q1 21 edging towards 50.00p. The current stasis in oil prices looks likely to continue today as Brent crude has eased by just 9 cents overnight to trade just above $50.00 a barrel. On the carbon market, EU ETS prices are firming again following the EU commitment to reducing emissions by 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. repor