The recent rally on the oil market was halted

Despite the low demand and adequate supply, prompt gas prices gained on Thursday

The UK gas market continued the trend of earlier in the week with only marginal movement on futures prices on Thursday. The continuing deterioration in the coronavirus situation in Europe, and the UK in particular, prevented the gas market from tracking oil prices higher this week. With above normal temperatures continuing across Ireland and the UK, demand on the UK gas system fell below 200MCM on Thursday. While wind generation fell from Wednesday’s highs, it remained above 10GW, further easing gas demand. Despite the low demand and adequate supply, prompt gas prices gained on Thursday while the futures market saw mixed, but marginal movement day-on-day.

 

GB baseload power futures reversed Wednesday’s gains

The day ahead contract fell marginally as wind generation was forecast to remain robust today and demand is expected to fall slightly heading into the weekend. Wind generation is currently the dominant source of supply, providing 33% of GB power demand with gas providing 25% today. GB baseload power futures reversed Wednesday’s gains as oil and emissions prices eased on Thursday. The recent rally on the oil market was halted and carbon prices fell for a third consecutive day.

The oil price rally of the previous 3 days was halted on Thursday

The oil price rally of the previous 3 days was halted on Thursday as official U.S. inventory data showed an increase in crude oil stocks last week. Wednesday’s inventory report from the American Petroleum Industry predicted a decline in crude and distillate stocks while the official data from the Energy Information Administration released today showed a significant increase in crude stocks but a bigger decline in distillate stocks. The somewhat contradictory reports took the recent momentum out of the market and Brent crude settled 73 cents lower at $43.53 while West Texas Intermediate was down 32 cents to $41.12 a barrel.  

UK gas futures are strengthening in early trading

UK gas futures are strengthening in early trading today despite oil prices slipping again overnight. The early gains are showing on contracts for the remaining winter months, but contracts further out are static or easing slightly this morning. Carbon prices are also trading higher this morning with the EU ETS contract price for 2021 trading just above €26.00 per tonne again. Demand on the UK gas system has risen slightly from yesterday, but the system remains well supplied and line-pack is forecast to increase by 10MCM today. Within day and day ahead contracts have yet to trade but bid-offer spreads suggest some easing is likely.