Equities and commodities markets saw strong gains on the back of the positive vaccine news

10 November 2020

 A strong upturn in oil prices also turned gas prices along the curve higher

UK gas supply was slow to ramp up from weekend levels and the system was forecast 20MCM short yesterday morning. A big increase in LNG send-out over the course of the day saw the system balanced by close of business, however. Prompt gas prices retained some of the strong early gains recorded on foot of the supply shortfall, the day ahead contract closing 1.55p higher and week ahead gaining 1.00p. A strong upturn in oil prices turned gas prices along the curve higher also, although near futures recorded marginal losses on the day.  

 Carbon prices gained over €1.00 per tonne on the day

Baseload power futures on the GB market tracked gas price movement on Monday with stronger gains further out the curve as carbon rallied. Seasonal contracts for Summer 21 and beyond gained an average of £0.66.Carbon prices gained over €1.00 per tonne on the day with EU ETS unit prices moving above €26.00 per tonne. Day ahead contract gained £2.25/MWh as demand was forecast to increase and wind availability to remain low. Wind generation averaged just 2.5GW on Monday and is forecast at roughly the same level today.

 The oil market experienced a significant surge on Monday

The oil market experienced a significant surge on Monday as news of successful trials of a Covid-19 vaccine emerged. Equities and commodities markets saw strong gains on the back of the positive vaccine news and post-election optimism. Brent crude gained over $4.00, or 10%, intra-day before settling $2.95 higher day-on-day at $42.40 while WTI gained $3.15, or 8.5%, to settle at $40.29 a barrel. News of increased Libyan oil production, which might otherwise have had negative connotations for price, was overlooked as the market looked to increased demand in 2021 as a vaccine would lead to the lifting of restrictions on economic activity.  

Demand on the UK gas system has eased with temperatures remaining above normal

Demand on the UK gas system has eased with temperatures remaining above normal. Unlike the situation yesterday morning, the system is well-supplied, and line-pack is forecast 13MCM long today. Prompt gas prices have opened lower as a result, the spot price is down 1.25p and day ahead gas is trading 1.35p down on last night’s closing level. The near futures market continues to soften with the front month down 0.61p but contracts along the curve are offered higher as crude oil has strengthened further overnight. Carbon prices are little changed with the EU ETS unit price for 2021 currently trading at €26.50 per tonne