Crude oil markets continued on an upward trajectory as prices rose for the seventh session in a row.

10 February 2021

The system was comfortable with a surplus of 12MCM throughout the day

While Wintry conditions continued over the UK and Ireland, the gas market seemed to be less concerned on Tuesday as much of the premium added in the previous session evaporated.  Demand remains high and on par with the previous day at 401MCM.  The system was comfortable with a surplus of 12MCM throughout the day.  Short term weather forecasts would suggest a further dip in temperatures in the coming days but with the arrival of two LNG cargos it likely to give the system a boost.  At market settlement, the front month contract was priced at 49.73p, down by 3.38p from the previous close.    

 The day ahead gained strongly for a third consecutive day

The UK National Grid forecast for peak power demand came in at 45,250MW as temperature continued to hoover near freezing.  The system was relatively comfortable despite an expected drop in wind generation output during peak hours.  Both IFA1 and IFA 2 were operating in opposite directions although overall the UK remained a net importer of 2.5GW of power.  The day ahead gained strongly for a third consecutive day as demand stayed elevated.  Baseload power for today was priced at £79.75/MWh, up by £13.00 from the previous session.  
 Crude oil markets continued an upward trajectory on Tuesday
Crude oil markets continued on an upward trajectory on Tuesday as prices rose for the seventh session in a row.  The price increase was modest enough with some of the heat being taken out of the market as there were some indication that there had been a build in U.S. crude stocks.  This data came from the API trade group which reports its data one day ahead of the official report from the Energy Information Administration.  In truth, the market operated rangebound with the spread between the high and low at just over a dollar.  At market settlement the Brent crude contract closed at $61.09 a barrel, up by 53 cents from the previous close.

 

EUA carbon contracts are down by 21 cents

Demand on the UK gas system is forecast at just over 408MCM today which is 8MCM higher than at this point yesterday.  The system is forecast 12MCM long as deliveries step up in response.  Langeled deliveries are running at 73MCM while LNG send-out is steady at over 100MCM.  With temperatures remaining low, distribution demand is running at 327MCM.  Following yesterday’s losses on the gas market, contracts have opened weaker once again this morning.  The front month March contract is down by a penny in early trading and is changing hands at 48.69p.  Crude oil remains in an upward trajectory with Brent priced at $61.42 a barrel.  EUA carbon contracts are down by 21 cents.