The conflict between Russia and the Ukraine continues to drive volatility

NBP futures contracts traded in wide ranges

The volatility in the gas markets that was seen earlier in the week was evident again on Thursday as NBP futures contracts traded in wide ranges through the session.  The April contract peaked at 465.92p earlier on and later traded down to 329.99p.  At the close, April settled at 384.05p, declining 10.00p day on day.  The summer contract hit a high of 413.88p before settling at 373.10p, down 13.03p from Wednesday’s close.  Russian gas flows to Europe, a key concern for the market, remained steady yesterday and news of possible talks between representatives from Russia and Ukraine pressured near curve contracts late in the session.  On the prompt, the spot and day ahead products settled almost 50.00p lower yesterday.

Baseload futures in the UK were marked lower on Thursday

Baseload futures in the UK were marked lower on Thursday with the near curve settling down by an average of £59.00/MWh.  The conflict between Russia and the Ukraine continues to drive volatility in the market and news that representatives from both sides are to meet in Belarus provided some relief to prices. The GB power grid is expected to be tight on Friday as wind generation is forecast to drop by 4.5GW.  Supply margins could get as low as 2.0GW and the day ahead product moved £78.91/MWh higher to settle at £380.00/MWh.

 The Crude oil markets settled down on Thursday

The Crude oil markets settled down on Thursday with Brent declining by $2.47 a barrel after racking up gains of $18.81 a barrel in the previous three sessions. Trading was erratic earlier on as the May contract for Brent peaked at $119.84 a barrel before going on to trade down to $109.40 a barrel, the low for the day.  Overall fundamentals in the market are the same with the war between Russia and Ukraine adding to concerns of tighter supplies. The OPEC+ group met earlier in the week and agreed to maintain their monthly output increase at 400,000 barrels despite calls for more oil from the market.  Talks on Iran’s nuclear deal have progressed giving some hope of more oil to the market.

Gas flows to Europe have remained stable this morning

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues gas flows to Europe have remained stable this morning. NBP futures opened lower briefly but latest trades for the front month and season are above yesterday’s close by over 25.00p.  April last traded at 415.01p but bid/ ask spreads are wide which has slowed activity in the last half an hour.  Carbon EUAs have opened lower too but are currently showing marginal gains of around 25 cent per tonne this morning.  In the crude oil markets Brent is $2.01 a barrel higher at $112.47 a barrel.

Find out more about our Commercial Energy Services