The near curve on the NBP opened the week stronger
The near curve on the NBP opened the week stronger but the gains were not sustained, and contracts reversed the morning premium and traded below Fridays close for much of the session. The front month, May, settled at 244.06p, down 13.26p posting the greatest loss of the day as fears of Russia curbing gas exports faded. Prompt prices declined in a range of 21.70p to 32.00p on Monday as the weather outlook improved for the coming week. While temperatures are to return to normal, wind generation is to pick up which should displace gas fired generators from the GB power stack. Exports to the continent through the interconnectors rose to 72MCM yesterday, up 18MCM from Friday.
GB baseload futures market followed the NBP near curve lower
As fears of cuts to Russian gas exports eased on Monday the GB baseload futures market followed the NBP near curve lower. The May contract closed at £214.00/MWh, down £5.40/MWh which was around £2.00/MWh more than the average loss for contracts out to the winter yesterday. Carbon EUAs oscillated between gains and losses and finally settled 0.5% down. Forecasts for increased wind generation helped weigh on prompt power prices on Monday. But the Wind outturned higher than expected at 11.8GW, with levels for the week forecast around 9.0GW. Baseload for the day ahead shed £31.00/MWh to close at£209.00/MWh.
Brent settled at $107.53 a barrel on Monday
Crude oil prices rebounded by around 3.0% on Monday after a global condemnation of civilian deaths in Bucha, northwest of Kyiv. The EU and the U.S. are in talks to impose a tougher package of sanctions on Russia while President Macron proposed adding coal and oil to the list after suggesting Russian forces could be guilty of war crimes. Iran said yesterday that its ready to resume negotiations with the U.S. but blamed them for the current pause in talks which they say is close to an agreement. Washington has said Tehran has caused the delay preventing the nuclear talks from proceeding. An agreement could see the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and boost global supplies. Brent settled at $107.53 a barrel on Monday, up $3.14 a barrel.
Crude oil prices have continued to recover this morning
Crude oil prices have continued to recover this morning as the discussions over tougher sanctions for Russia go on. Brent last traded at $109.05 a barrel, up $1.52 a barrel in early trading. The GB gas system is running 9MCM long this morning against the forecast demand of 278MCM. There have been no deals agreed on the prompt board but NBP futures have opened lower. The May contract last traded at 232.79p, the low of the morning, and is down 11.27p. The winter contract is 5.69p down at 256.00p and contracts past this have yet to trade.