Two unplanned outages at Norwegian facilities Nyhama and Troll have temporarily disrupted export nominations

05 February 2024

Gas Market

On Friday, UK gas prices were extending their recent decline. However, as the market settled, the price movement was limited, and no prices exceeded a movement of 1.00 pence per therm. The NBP front month contract March dipped to a low of 69.58p but eventually closed at 71.48p while gas for delivery in summer fell to 71.56p before crawling back to settle at 73.05p. The ability of the market to overcome this week’s Freeport outage, in contrast to the outage last year that led to a significant price increase, serves as a reminder of the market’s positive evolution and improved outlook compared to the previous year. Over the next week the arrival of six LNG cargoes at UK ports is expected, with five originating from the US. In the prompt market the Within day and Day ahead contracts closed at 69.80p and 69.81p respectively.

Power Market

GB baseload power futures edged higher on Friday, to end the week in positive territory over a five-day average. The front month contract March took the brunt of the gains, moving £1.75/MWh to settle at £67.90/MWh while power for delivery in Summer settled at £67.25/MWh, up £0.75 on the day. Weakness in the UK spark spread markets has supported the recent stability witness in the GB power market. EUA carbon prices attempted to recovery recent losses during Friday’s session, however the EUA Dec-24 contract failed to break the €64.00 price mark and settled at €63.51 a tonne on the day.

 Oil Market

Global oil markets opened higher on Friday but failed to hang onto the early gains and eventually closed 2% lower. With robust U.S. jobs data, which lessened the chances of short-term interest rate cuts, both Brent crude and WTI faced a weekly loss, supported by China’s economic struggles and persistent geopolitical tensions. The International Monetary Fund predicts a Chinese slowdown, expecting the country’s economic growth to drop to 4.6% in 2024 and further decline to around 3.5% by 2028. While closer to home, the European Central Bank stated on Friday it was too early to begin cutting interested rates. Brent crude settled at $77.33, down $1.37 on the day.

Markets this morning

On this Irish Bank Holiday Monday, UK gas prices have sustained the sentiment seen on Friday, with no significant price movements. The front month contract March last traded at 70.83p, down by 0.65p. Meanwhile, the Summer-24 contract is down 0.30p, last trading at 72.75 pence per therm. Two unplanned outages at Norwegian facilities Nyhama and Troll have temporarily disrupted export nominations. However, these outages are anticipated to be short-lived, and by resolved in 24 hours. In the wider fuel mix, both EUA carbon and Brent crude have started the week in negative territory. Brent crude front month is at $77.04 a barrel, while the EUA Dec-24 contract is at €63.18 a tonne.