Gas Market
Gas prices rebounded on Thursday as hopes of a ceasefire faded as Israel continued to attack Beirut and Southern Lebanon while reports that UN peacekeepers being fired on filtered through. Bullish carbon prices also added to the upside while oil prices made strong gains on the day too. The NBP front month, November, added 4.84p to close at 100.42p. It’s the largest one-day gain for November since early May when the market moved higher on supply fears following the commencement of planned maintenance works on key Norwegian fields. Further along the curve, the Summer contract added 3.87p yesterday and gains diminished as the curve moved out. Prompt prices also rose sharply yesterday and the Day ahead increased by 5.00p with gas demand expected to rise on Friday as temperatures dip going into the weekend.
Power Market
The strong gains in the gas and carbon markets pushed contracts on the GB baseload curve higher on Thursday. November posted the greatest gain of the day, settling £3.38/MWh higher at £86.40/MWh. The contract for Quarter 1 also added over £3.00/MWh yesterday while further out gains were not so strong. Baseload for the Day ahead increased with support from NBP prompt yesterday while wind generation is forecast at seasonal norms.
Carbon prices have rebounded since the Spot for EUAs settled at a fresh six-month low on Tuesday. The contract has gained over 8.0% or €5.05 per tonne since. The Dec-24 and Dec-25 EUAs added €2.31 and €2.40 per tonne yesterday.
Oil Market
As hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida, the impact was less than expected, however, gasoline demand in the State pushed crude oil prices higher yesterday. Many fuel/ gas stations had sold out of supplies before Milton hit, and uncertainty remains as to supply chain disruption and when supplies in Florida will be restored. The conflict in the Middle East continues to underpin crude oil prices with concerns that Israel’s retaliation on Iran could impact oil supplies in the region after their defence minister said their response would be lethal. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar have been lobbying the U.S. to dissuade Israel from targeting Iran’s oil fields as they fear attacks on their own supplies from Iran. At the close, Brent was $2.82 a barrel higher at $79.40 a barrel.
Markets this morning
After a volatile session on Thursday, the energy markets are all in retreat this morning. NBP futures are over a penny lower with November last trading at 99.24p per therm. GB gas demand has increased today but the system is forecast long and prompt prices have also eased and the Day ahead product is 1.50p down at 97.25p. Carbon EUAs are almost a euro a tonne lower with the Dec-25 contract last going through at €66.24 per tonne. Israel have continued to bombard Beirut overnight, but crude oil prices have eased as the markets weigh up the impact of hurricane Milton on U.S. demand. Brent for December delivery last exchanged at $78.48 a barrel, down 92 cents.
11 October 2024
