The NBP prompt was driven down on Monday by higher than normal wind power levels predicted for the coming week

Gas Market

The NBP curve traded sideways on Friday, with contracts making modest losses by the close. MetDesk, who provide professional weather services for traders, revealed that they are expecting a warmer winter season for the UK, which fed downside into an otherwise fundamentally unchanged market. The front month contract fell by 0.61p to close the week at 97.99p per therm, while Q1 25 made the biggest loss of the day, falling by 0.86p to close the week at 101.14p per therm. Wind power production levels were forecast at 20.0% above seasonal normal levels, which fed into the downside on the prompt, although the continuation of numerous Norwegian supply niggles limited losses. Within Day fell by 0.65p despite a short system, to close at 96.05p per therm, while Day ahead decreased by 1.10p to close the week at 95.20p per therm.  

Power Market

GB Baseload curve contracts edged down on Friday, following the direction of the NBP gas market. The front month contract shed £0.78/MWh to end the session at £85.25/MWh. The prompt showed more significant downside as wind power production for the front week was set to be well above normal levels. The Day ahead contract fell by £21.53/MWh, or 24.6%, day-on-day to end the session at £65.50/MWh. Weak energy markets and subdued trading activity pushed European carbon markets sideways on Friday. The Dec-24 EUA contract fell by €0.49 to end the day at €62.51 a tonne. UK Allowances for Dec-24 gained modest value, increasing by £0.20 day-on-day to settle at £39.00 a tonne.      

Oil Market

Crude oil markets shed further value on Friday to end the week at levels not seen since the end of September. Front month Brent ended the session at $73.06 a barrel, down $1.39 day-on-day and 7.6% week-on-week. Ongoing weak economic indicators from China as well as an easing of threats to oil supplies in the Middle East weighed on prices. In China, the world’s top oil importer, the economy grew at the slowest pace since 2023 in the third quarter of this year, while refinery output also declined for the sixth straight month in September. In contrast, positive U.S. economic data helped to alleviate the impact of demand growth concerns and limited downside. WTI for November delivery fell by $1.45 to settle at $69.22 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

NBP curve contracts have firmed this morning, with the front month up by 1.94p per therm on Friday’s close, while the front season last traded at a 1.01p premium to the previous close. The Spot and prompt are yet to trade. The ongoing issues to Norwegian pipeline supplies continue to impact flows into the UK, with the GB system currently operating in a short position. Wind power production is solid today, with renewables representing 50.1% of generation in the power stack.  Oil prices are trading flat this morning following last week’s 7.6% fall. Today, China cut benchmark lending rates as part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy, although this has done little to impact prices so far. Front month Brent last went through at $73.45, down 39 cents day-on-day.