Gas Market
A bullish weather outlook for the coming days supported the NBP prompt on Friday. Wind forecasts are expected to be between 10-20% below normal levels from the start of the week, while temperatures are also forecast on the cooler side, both increasing heating demand levels. An extension to maintenance at the St. Fergus terminal exacerbated the ongoing supply concerns, although the impact was minimal. The Day ahead contract increased by 2.30p to settle at 137.75p per therm. Within day upside was mitigated by a well-supplied system, with the Spot gaining just 0.25p day-on-day. Prompt volatility and diminishing storage levels continued to feed into the near curve, with the front month increasing by 2.56p day-on-day, while April-25 posted a 3.00p gain to close the week at 134.36p per therm.
Power Market
A downward revision to wind output for the start of the week as well as below normal temperatures supported the GB Baseload Day ahead contract on Friday, which gained £0.90/MWh to settle at £111.40/MWh. Gains were also seen across the curve, influenced by the ongoing upward trajectory of the NBP gas market. The near months averaged gains of £2.52/MWh, while Winter-25 increased by £2.53/MWh to close out the week at £104.88/MWh.
European carbon prices showed little desire to make any significant moves on Friday, with the EUA Spot contract edging up by just 56 cents a tonne. UK Allowances exhibited more pronounced upside with the Dec-25 contract posting a gain of £1.76 to close out the week at £47.21 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices edged sideways on Friday as upside from the imposition of Donald Trump’s tariffs and sanctions was mitigated by demand concerns. Trump has announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as part of a broad plan to improve the U.S. trade balance, but suspended plans to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The White House also issued sanctions against individuals and vessels involved in the shipping of Iranian crude oil to China. The potential trade war between the U.S. and China stoked fears surrounding weakening oil demand levels, hampering price gains. Front month Brent ended the session at $74.66 a barrel, up just 37 cents day-on-day and down 2.7% week-on-week. WTI for March delivery similarly gained 39 cents on its previous close to settle at $71.00 a barrel.
Markets this morning
NBP curve prices have made a bullish start to the week, with the front month contract last going through at a 5.24p per therm premium to Friday’s close. Supply concerns persist, despite a reduction in flows from Norway being largely offset by a ramp up in LNG sendout. A full outage at the Barrow North facility over the weekend will persist until Friday, stirring supply risk. As expected, gas-for-power demand is up today due to lower winds and colder temps. European gas storage levels have now dropped below 50%, sitting at 49.0% full this morning. Crude oil prices have also ticked higher, rebounding after last week’s declines and seemingly uninterested by Trump’s latest threats on steel and aluminium imports.
10 February 2025
