Gas Market
The day-on-day movement on the NBP curve concealed the underlying volatility of the session. The front-month contract opened lower but gained momentum throughout the morning, reaching an intra-day high of 144.63p/th—up 3.38p/th from Monday’s settlement. However, in the late afternoon, prices reversed course, ultimately settling at 140.57p/th, marking a daily decline of 0.68p. After the settlement window, the NBP continued its downward trajectory, with the Mar-25 contract dropping to 136.75p/th, resulting in a within-day trading range of 7.88p. This trend was mirrored across the curve, though day-on-day settlement movements were mixed. Afternoon price pressure stemmed from forecasts indicating above-seasonal temperatures for the coming week and steady LNG flows into the UK and Europe.
Power Market
GB Baseload power futures closed lower, weighed down by late losses on the NBP wholesale gas market. The decline was more pronounced in near-term contracts, with the Q2-25 contract falling by £1.10/MWh, settling at £105.50/MWh. In contrast, the prompt market saw gains, driven by below-average wind generation and increased reliance on thermal power. As a result, the day-ahead contract rose by £4.50, settling at £130.00/MWh.
The EUA carbon market declined by an average of 1% on Tuesday, tracking movements in European gas and power markets. The late downturn in gas prices was mirrored in the EUA market, with the spot price dropping to €80.13/tonne and the Dec-25 contract settling at €82.14/tonne.
Oil Market
Brent crude oil futures edged higher on Tuesday as global supply concerns continued to weigh on the market. The front-month contract for April delivery rose by $1.13 a barrel amid worries over Russian and Iranian exports. U.S. sanctions targeting Russian tankers, producers, and insurers have significantly disrupted shipments to India and China. Meanwhile, the renewed push by former President Trump to apply “maximum pressure” on Iranian exports has further strained shipping networks delivering oil to China, increasing demand for alternative sources and driving up prices. However, gains were limited by fears of a global trade war, led by Trump, which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand. His latest tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminium have raised concerns about escalating trade tensions, with Canada, Mexico and the EU condemning the move.
Markets this morning
NBP futures have relinquished much of the gains witnessed on Monday this morning with March, the front month, down by 5.43p per therm to 135.14p. Similar losses have been observed further along the curve with the Q2-25 contract down 5.05p per therm and Summer 25 last traded at 132.79p/th, a decline of 5.15p. While the first Day-ahead trade this morning has moved in line with forward contracts, low temperatures and weaker wind generation are expected to limit losses on the Day-ahead market with gas for power demand up 19mcm/d to 80 mcm/d. Brent last exchanged at $76.17 a barrel, down $0.83 on news of a statement from US the Fed that they were not in a rush to cut interest rates.
Yesterday in Summary
NBP gas prices exhibited significant intraday volatility, with the front-month contract reaching a high of 144.63p/th before reversing to settle at 140.57p/th, down 0.68p on the day. Post-settlement, prices continued declining, with Mar-25 falling to 136.75p/th. Afternoon losses were driven by forecasts of above-seasonal temperatures and steady LNG flows. Brent crude futures rose $1.13/bbl amid supply concerns from Russian and Iranian export disruptions as a result of U.S sanctions. GB Baseload power futures declined, pressured by weaker gas, while the EUA carbon market fell 1%, with the Dec-25 contract settling at €82.14/tonne, tracking losses in European energy markets.
12 February 2025
