With talks set to continue today regarding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, supply concerns continued to abate, weighing on NBP curve prices on Monday

18 February 2025

Gas Market

NBP prices had a choppy start to the week, with the front month contract oscillating above and below its previous close early on Monday morning. The market ultimately decided on a downward course with the March-25 contract falling by 6.54p per therm by the close. With talks set to continue today regarding a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, supply concerns continued to abate on the possibility of Europe availing of Russian gas imports once again, albeit to a lesser degree of reliance than before. The near months averaged losses of 6.61p per therm day-on-day, with 8 LNG cargoes expected to arrive into the U.K. by the end of the month adding to the downside. Prompt prices exhibited losses to an even greater extent, with an upward revision to wind output levels for the rest of the week and warmer temperatures from tomorrow relieving demand levels. The Within day and Day ahead contracts both shed 8.15p by the close.  

Power Market

GB Baseload futures remained in the clutches of a weakening NBP market on Monday with the biggest day-on-day loss seen on the front month contract. March-25 shed £6.15/MWh to end the session at £94.95/MWh, while the Summer-25 contract posted a £5.70/MWh loss to settle at £89.50/MWh. The prompt market was similarly weak as wind power production levels for the rest of the week and into the next were revised up. Day ahead fell by 6.3% to close out the day at £107.00/MWh. Downside across European gas markets weighed on carbon prices on Monday, despite firm near-term demand fundamentals. The Spot EUA contract closed at its lowest level since mid-January to settle at €75.04 a tonne, down €2.75 day-on-day.  

Oil Market

Crude oil prices were flat on Monday as the market remained tentative to a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could ease sanctions disrupting global oil supply. With talks continuing today in Saudi Arabia between Russia and the U.S., the process to secure a peace deal is unlikely to be smooth considering the absence of Ukraine at this early stage. Brent for April delivery edged up by just 48 cents day-on-day to close out the session at $75.22 a barrel. Further upside could be gleaned from reports that OPEC+ is considering delaying April’s plans to reinstate the first tranche of 2.2 million barrels per day of group production cuts, with some members fearing that global demand levels remain too weak to introduce additional supplies. The front month WTI contract posted a 59 cent gain to settle at $71.33 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

NBP curve prices have continued to soften this morning in anticipation of today’s talks in Saudi Arabia regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Warmer and windier conditions expected for the rest of the week and into the next should mitigate any potential upside on the prompt. With no maintenance outages scheduled for Norwegian or U.K. gas facilities this week and LNG sendout strong, supplies remain robust with the GB system currently in oversupply. Brent oil prices have edged up this morning on reports of a drone attack on an oil pipeline station in Russia reducing flows from Kazakhstan. Front month Brent last went through at $75.70 a barrel, up 48 cents day-on-day.