Gas Market
A volatile week ended on a choppy note on Friday with NBP curve contracts opening above their previous close only to fall back later in the session. With April taking over as the front month, the contract closed the week at 104.83p per therm, down by 2.29p day-on-day on strong selling activity during the afternoon. Meanwhile on the prompt, the Day ahead contract fell by 1.40p to close at 107.38p per therm. Lower demand from the power generation sector due to high wind speeds forecast for the coming days fed into near-curve and prompt losses. Additional downside was garnered from recent robust LNG sendout levels and a packed arrivals schedule. Competition from Asian markets for LNG has waned since the start of the year, with China’s LNG imports in February hitting their lowest level in 5 years due to warmer than usual temperatures, lower industrial activity, ample gas in storage and increased pipeline imports.
Power Market
Bearish sentiment from the NBP gas market filtered into downside across the GB Baseload market on Friday. On its final day as the front month, March-25 expired at £91.10/MWh, down £0.65/MWh day-on-day. Prompt prices also fell on above-average temperature forecasts and strong wind output which should hamper gas-fired power generation demand. The Day ahead contract fell by £2.81/MWh to close out the week at £93.93/MWh.
European carbon prices retreated in line with losses across European gas hubs on Tuesday. The Spot EUA contract hit a fresh two-month low, closing at €69.47 a tonne, down €1.83 day-on-day. 2025 UK Allowances fell by £0.80 to finish the week at £42.85 a tonne.
Oil Market
A combination of U.S. tariff threats and the impending resumption of Iraqi oil exports from the Kurdistan region weighed on oil prices on Friday. The front month Brent contract settled at $73.18 a barrel, down 86 cents from its previous close, and down 5.6% month-on-month. Iraq is set to announce the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, according to a statement from the Iraqi oil ministry. Adding further downside was ongoing uncertainty surrounding OPEC’s production resumption plans in April, as well as the ongoing talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for April 2025 delivery fell by 59 cents day-on-day to close out the week at $69.76 a barrel.
Markets this morning
NBP prices have rebounded from last week’s losses this morning, with hopes surrounding a Russia-Ukraine peace-deal wavering after the meeting of Trump and Zelensky on Friday. The front month contract last transacted at 109.76p per therm, up 4.90p day-on-day but still down just under 2.5p week-on-week. The Day ahead contract is also trading above its previous close, despite weak demand from the power generation sector lowering overall demand levels. Brent oil prices are trading sideways on uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace deal and global economic growth from potential U.S. tariffs. Front month Brent last went through at $72.47 a barrel, down 71 cents day-on-day.
03 March 2025
