Gas Market
NBP prices remained range-bound for much of the morning session on Tuesday before falling back in the afternoon after a limited ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was announced. The U.S. reached separate deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause their attacks at sea and against energy infrastructure, renewing hopes that a lasting peace-deal could be possible. Furthermore, the U.S. appears to be pushing for sanctions on Russia to be lifted which could have a positive impact on global LNG supplies. After briefly trading below 100p, the April 25 contract settled at 100.78p per therm, a loss of 3.19p day-on-day. The prompt market was also in decline, with the Day ahead contract falling by 3.58p day-on-day to close at 99.80p per therm on increased wind and solar power production levels forecast for the rest of the week. An oversupplied GB system weighed on the Spot market, with the Within day contract posting a loss of 3.58p to settle at 100.30p per therm.
Power Market
GB Baseload curve contracts fell in line with losses across the NBP market on Tuesday afternoon. The front month contract fell by £1.26/MWh to end the day at £87.70/MWh, while the June product shed £2.70/MWh to settle at £81.15/MWh. The prompt market also exhibited losses due to well above average wind and solar power production levels forecast for the rest of the week, with the Day ahead contract falling by £0.35/MWh day-on-day.
European carbon prices eased on Tuesday, following the downward trajectory of gas markets in the afternoon session. The Spot EUA contract ended the session down by €1.22 to close at €68.86 a tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices continued to trade sideways on Tuesday, with fundamentals remaining largely unchanged day-on-day. The past five days have seen Brent oil prices move gradually up, with the incline attributed to concerns over tighter global oil supplies in light of the U.S. tariffs announced on countries that buy Venezuelan crude oil. OPEC+’s plans to proceed with a second consecutive month of crude production increases in May hampered upside. However, the group’s simultaneous plans for seven of its members to cut production to compensate for past over-production remains a supporting factor. The front month Brent contract closed at an intra-month high of $73.02 a barrel, an increase of just 2 cents day-on-day.
Markets this morning
NBP prices have opened in negative territory this morning as the market digests the news that arrived yesterday afternoon of a limited ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While details of the deal remain unclear, Russian strikes have continued in the Black Sea, hampering further downside. The front month contract last went through at 100.00p per therm, down 0.78p on yesterday’s close. An improved weather forecast, with average temperatures set to remain above normal and renewable output expected to be strong for the rest of the week and into next, should keep a cap on prompt gains. Crude oil prices have edged up slightly this morning with U.S. efforts to limit Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports continuing to provide support.
26 March 2025
