Gas Market
European gas prices were mixed yesterday as the market awaited the outcome of the European Commission’s meeting regarding a proposed extension to gas storage filling targets, aimed at introducing greater flexibility. European storage levels closed the winter period with three consecutive days of net injections, bringing total storage to 33.72% full—significantly lower than the 58.72% recorded at the same time last year. A 5% deviation from storage targets and a wider timeframe in which EU nations may reach their winter storage requirements are being proposed to ease pressure on the system. Near-curve contracts declined by an average of 0.39p, while the Winter 2025 contract rose by 1.53p to settle at 104.53p/therm. Prompt prices found support from forecasts of a temperature drop next week and the first bout of Norwegian Summer maintenance commencing next week.
Gas prices
UK gas prices had a mixed day across the curve yesterday, with the DA price unchanged and the Win25 contract up 1.48%, with the market waiting for news today from the European Commissions’ meeting around the proposal for an extension on gas storage filling targets calling for more flexibility.
Power Market
UK power prices were generally positive yesterday, supported by a rise in gas prices. This provided upward pressure along the curve, with the front-month April, Q2 2025, and Summer 2025 contracts all settling higher on their final day of trading. Although wind output was low, its impact on the day-ahead contract was offset by a significant increase in solar generation. As a result, the day-ahead contract fell by 7.47% to £87.90/MWh.
Meanwhile, European carbon prices dropped sharply early on Monday. Concerns over potential widespread US tariffs triggered aggressive selling, pushing benchmark EUA prices to their lowest level in three weeks. The December 2025 contract declined by €0.66 to €68.10 per tonne.
Oil Market
U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on buyers of Russian oil caused oil prices to climb to a five-week high on Monday, as traders assessed how aggressively the White House might pursue Chinese and Indian oil importers. On Sunday, Trump expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating he will consider imposing secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on countries purchasing Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Another move by Trump that could limit global oil supplies was the notification to Repsol by US authorities that its license to export oil from Venezuela is to be revoked. On its last day of trading, Brent crude May rose by 1.11 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $74.74 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Energy markets have been muted so far this morning as markets await the possible relaxation of EU gas storage targets and for clarification on how wide-ranging Trump’s April 2nd “liberation day” tariffs will be. Near curve NBP contracts are flat with an average increase of 0.01p so far this morning. Lower wind generation is supporting the day-ahead with a 1.13p gain on yesterday’s close to 98p/therm. Brent crude is up a meagre 11c at $74.63/bbl as further gains on the back of supply concerns are capped by the expectations of an escalation of tariffs.
01 April 2025
