Gas Market
NBP gas prices opened in negative territory, but the decline was short-lived as prices rebounded in the early afternoon and continued to rise, with the front-month contract settling 5% higher at 102.65p/th. The upward momentum was driven by two separate reports originating from Moscow. The initial price surge followed Russia’s announcement of its largest conscription programme in 14 years, fuelling scepticism over its commitment to a peace deal. Market concerns deepened in the afternoon when an interview with Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, was published. Ryabkov suggested that the current peace proposals fail to address the issues Moscow believes triggered the conflict, effectively stalling negotiations. As a result, gas prices spiked, with May contracts trading as high as 103.40p/th, while the Q3-25 contract peaked at 104.50p/th before settling at 103.66p/th—marking a day-on-day gain of 4.24p.
Power Market
UK baseload power prices followed the upward trend on the NBP, with all futures rising throughout Tuesday’s session. The primary driver was escalating geopolitical tension, sparked by Russia’s conscription drive and comments from the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister indicating that peace talks had stalled. On the prompt, however, day-ahead prices declined, weighed by strong solar output and forecasts for wind generation to exceed seasonal norms by 10–20%.
Both the EUA and UKA carbon markets traded higher on Tuesday, buoyed by the bullish momentum in the TTF and NBP gas markets. The Dec-25 EUA contract gained 2.8%, while its UKA counterpart rose by £0.63 per tonne. These in turn provided further support to UK power prices.
Oil Market
Brent front month crude oil traded near Monday’s five-week high for much of Tuesday’s session before closing marginally lower at $74.49/bbl, with prices supported by US President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on Russian crude and potential military action against Iran. Over the weekend, Trump expressed his frustration with President Putin, warning of tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil. He further escalated tensions by threatening Iran with similar tariffs and possible airstrikes should it fail to reach an agreement on its nuclear programme. However, gains were tempered by concerns over a potential economic slowdown and the broader impact on global growth stemming from a possible trade war between the US and the rest of the world, as Trump’s self-proclaimed “Liberation Day” draws closer.
Markets this morning
Gas markets have declined in early trading this morning, reversing some of yesterday’s gains. The front-month contract last traded at 101.43p/th, down 1.22p, ahead of a meeting between US and Russian envoys later this week. Prompt prices are also lower despite a 23% drop in Norwegian imports due to planned maintenance at the Nyhamna processing plant. However, an increase in LNG send-out, supported by the scheduled unloading of two LNG cargoes at UK terminals today, is helping prices dip back towards the 100p level. In crude oil markets, prices remain flat as traders await US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements later today.
02 April 2025
