Looming Trump tariffs weigh on Energy markets as NBP near curve contracts decline an average of 3.32p/therm

Gas Market

European gas prices fell late in the session on Wednesday, as discussions continued around relaxing EU storage targets and the global demand outlook was rattled by U.S. President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement of reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of trading partners. The NBP front-month May contract settled down by 3.32p at 99.33p/therm, as concerns grew that an escalating tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and the EU could dampen economic activity. On the prompt, above-average forecasted temperatures and increased wind generation contributed to declines across short-term contracts, with the day-ahead price falling by 3.60p to 98.6p/therm. Losses on the prompt were somewhat limited by ongoing maintenance at Norway’s Asgard gas field, which has reduced flows through the Langeled pipeline by 25%.    

Power Market

GB baseload power contracts declined on Wednesday, pressured by weaker NBP gas prices and a drop in UK carbon (UKA) prices. The front-month May contract fell by £2.50 to £79.50/MWh, while the Winter 2025 contract slipped £1.35 to £90.95/MWh. On the prompt, renewable generation significantly exceeded seasonal norms, reaching 17.3 GW, while warmer temperatures also weighed on prices. As a result, the day-ahead contract dropped by £6.10 to £74.00/MWh. Carbon prices fell along with gas markets as the EU continued discussions around relaxing storage targets and the impending Trump tariff announcement loomed. The Dec 25 UKA contract declined £1.14 to £44.95 per tonne while the EUA Dec contract fell 2.07% to €68.55/tonne. 

Oil Market

Oil prices settled marginally higher on Wednesday as market participants braced for U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which could exacerbate a global trade war and dampen demand for crude. Brent crude for June delivery increased 46c to $74.95 per barrel while WTI gained 51c to $71.71 per barrel. Oil prices fell into negative territory in post settlement trading as U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of trading partners. Adding to the complex global supply picture, Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, on Wednesday imposed restrictions on another major oil export route, suspending a mooring at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk a day after restricting loadings from a key Caspian pipeline. The restriction placed on the Caspian pipeline (CPC) was due to Ukrainian drone attacks on the pipeline’s infrastructure, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.  

Markets this morning

Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement has triggered sharp declines this morning, with near-curve NBP contracts down by an average of 2.39p, pushing all contracts below the 100p/therm mark. Warmer temperatures and strong wind generation are also contributing to losses on the prompt, with the day-ahead contract down 1.85p at 96.75p/therm. Oil prices have dropped by as much as 3% this morning, with front-month Brent falling $2.76 to $72.18 per barrel—marking its widest intraday movement since October last year.