Gas Market
Having opened lower following Trump’s tariff announcements, NBP futures continued to extend losses through Thursday as fears of demand destruction grew. The front month, May, settled at 95.38p per therm having declined by 3.95p which was just below the average loss for the remaining summer months for the day. The Winter-25 contract yielded 4.67p while seasonal contracts past this were down by around 2.00p on average. GB gas demand remained subdued just above 150mcm, as wind generation exceeded 10.0GW while the mild temperatures curbed heating load. Prompt prices were down 2.75p per therm for the most part and the Day ahead product closed at 95.85p despite ongoing planned maintenance at several key Norwegian gas fields.
Power Market
The sharp decline to NBP futures along with weaker carbon EUAs pressured baseload futures yesterday. The front month eased by £2.2.5/MWh to settle at £77.25/MWh while the Winter-25 contract was assessed at £80.50/MWh, down £2.45/MWh. Carbon EUAs contracts out to Dec-27 yielded 3.2% or €2.27 per tonne on average. The Spot for European Allowances settled at $64.88 per tonne, its lowest point this year.
Carbon EUAs settle higher on Friday with the Spot adding 48 cent to settle at €67.24 per tonne. The contract still returned a loss of €2.64 per tonne for the week due sustained selling pressure earlier in the week.
Oil Market
The global markets were in a spin yesterday after the U.S. administration set out tariff rates on imports from around the world. Stock markets around the globe contracted while Tech stocks in the U.S. lost around 5.9%. Crude oil prices plunged with fears that a trade war will lead to a global recession and Brent slipped by $4.81 a barrel, the largest one-day decline since 04-Oct-2023. Adding to the downside on the day was an announcement from OPEC+ to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day during May. The group have agreed to step up production by 138,000 bpd from April, but this came as a surprise to the market. Eight members of the group agreed to the larger increase for May, citing positive market outlook as the reason behind the extra output. Brent for June delivery was down 6.4% or $4.81 a barrel and settled at $70.14 a barrel.
Markets this morning
The fallout from the latest round of U.S. tariffs has continued to pressure energy prices this morning. NBP futures have opened softer and after a slow start, the front month is almost 3.00p down at 92.46p per therm. Further out, the Winter contract is showing a 3.19p decline having last exchanged at 99.00p. Trading on the prompt is thin, but the weekend product is down 2.50p. GB gas demand is pitched lower at 149mcm for today and wind generation is forecast to deliver over 10.0GW to the power stack. The surprise announcement from OPEC+ to increase production for May by 411,000 barrels per day continues to exacerbate losses for crude oil prices this morning as Brent for June delivery is down $2.35 a barrel.
04 April 2025
