The NBP market displayed significant volatility on Monday with the front month contract trading a range of over 12p over the session.

Gas Market

The NBP market displayed significant volatility on Monday with the front month contract trading a range of over 12p over the session. Having opened the week below the near 7-month lows seen by the close on Friday, prices began to incline early in the afternoon on speculation that Donald Trump was planning a 90-day pause to the recently announced reciprocal tariffs set to be rolled-out from Wednesday. Although markets such as Wall Street’s main indexes fell back into negative territory after the White House denied these reports, the NBP maintained a premium over Friday’s settlements with the front month contract increasing by 2.02p per therm day-on-day. Warm weather conditions and strong solar production forecasts hampered any upside from the near curve filtering into the prompt market, with the Day ahead contract declining by 1.93p to close at 87.30p per therm.  

Power Market

GB Baseload future contracts broadly extended Friday’s losses on Monday, albeit to a lesser extent. While the front month contract closed flat against its previous settlement, the Q3 and Q4 contracts shed £0.72/MWh and £0.55/MWh respectively despite their NBP counterparts posting gains. Strong solar production forecasts for the week weighed on the prompt, with the Day ahead contract shedding £6.02/MWh day-on-day to close at £85.98/MWh. Widespread selling across commodity and equity markets on Monday morning weighed on European carbon prices. Despite a strong recovery across NBP gas in the afternoon, the EUA Spot posted a loss of €1.42 a tonne by the close, while the Dec-25 contract fell by €1.80 a tonne day-on-day.

Oil Market

Oil prices extended last week’s losses on Monday as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that could impact global oil demand. Goldman Sachs forecasted a 45% chance of recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months whilst also making downward revisions to its oil price projections. Citi and Morgan Stanley also cut their Brent outlooks. Although imports of oil, gas and other refined products were given exemptions from tariffs, these policies could have a wider weakening effect on the global economy. Oversupply concerns compounded the downside after OPEC+ announced that it would be increasing production levels from May. The front month Brent contract closed at a four-year low after three consecutive days of losses to settle at $64.21 a barrel.    

Markets this morning

NBP curve prices have this morning opened below Monday’s close in a correction to yesterday afternoon’s gains. The front month contract last transacted at 88.86p per therm, down 1.91p on the previous settlement. The market will likely remain sensitive to any tariff-related developments as the session progresses. Meanwhile, the Spot market has strengthened day-on-day in response to an undersupplied GB system. The Within day contract last went through at 89.00p per therm, a premium of 1.95p on Monday’s close. Crude oil markets are steady this morning, with the front month Brent contract rebounding off the 4-year low at yesterday’s close to last trade at $64.34 a barrel, up just 13 cents day-on-day.