Gas Market
The NBP market remained largely rangebound throughout the trading session, as participants awaited further developments in the U.S.-initiated trade dispute. Monday’s rebound — prompted by an erroneous report suggesting a pause in tariff measures — proved short-lived, with near-curve prices returning to parity with Friday’s close. Since the announcement of President Trump’s tariffs, the front-month contract has declined by 14%, as market sentiment reflects growing fears of a global recession should the measures persist — or worse, should affected nations implement retaliatory tariffs, potentially igniting a full-scale global trade war, with the market settling prior to China’s assertion that it will proceed with its own tariffs on the U.S.. On the prompt, the day-ahead market was buoyant, supported by lower wind generation levels, with the contract settling at 89.90p/th.
Power Market
The decline on the NBP was not enough to the pull far curve GB Baseload contract lower in trading on Tuesday. A strong UKA market dominated proceeding for 2026 onwards as contracts made modest gains despite the decline on the NBP. On the Day ahead market baseload prices ticked lower despite a lack of wind. The recent spate of good weather has increased solar production and decreased electricity demand weighing on the prompt market.
Spot EUAs fell for the fifth straight session as the market continued to be dominated by the prospect of reduced industrial demand. Markets are anticipating a global recession as the tariff war initiated by the U.S. continues to escalate.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices fell in late trading on Tuesday with the Brent June contract settling at $62.82/bbl a four-year low. The front-month Brent contract traded largely at parity throughout most of the day, as both oil and equity markets awaited any indication that the United States might engage in negotiations regarding its recently introduced tariffs. However, concerns around the retaliatory tariffs from China — first announced last week — weighed on both markets. Following renewed threats from President Trump to impose further tariffs totalling 104% on the Asian superpower, Beijing responded by reinforcing its stance, declaring it would not yield to what it termed U.S. “blackmail”, vowing instead to “fight to the end”. The U.S. Tariffs were due to come into effect overnight, increasing concerns for a global recession and pulling oil prices to their lowest levels in four years.
Markets this morning
Gas contracts have continued their downward slide this morning following the commencement of the U.S. tariffs overnight, including the 104% tariff on China. As a result, the prospect of falling demand is weighing on energy markets. The NBP front month has last traded at 85.26p/th a fall of 3.49p from Tuesday’s settlement. Crude oil markets have fallen to fresh four-year lows this morning. The Brent contract for delivery in June traded as low as $60.13/bbl but has pared some of those losses since, last exchanging hands at $61.14. Carbon markets are also continuing to extend recent losses with the Dec-25 down €1.05/tonne at €61.02.
09 April 2025
