Gas Market
Another day of turmoil across financial and commodity markets ensued on Wednesday, with the NBP closing prior to the announcement from Donald Trump of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs against non-retaliatory countries. Instead, following the commencement of the initial reciprocal tariffs, including an increase on China to 104% and China’s subsequent announcement of 84% tariffs on U.S. goods, heightened economic concerns and fears of a global recession continued to weigh on prices. The front month contract fell by 5.54p day-on-day to close at 83.21p per therm, down 18.9% since the start of the month. Meanwhile, weakness continued on the prompt due to a well-supplied system and ample supply. Although wind production is currently below normal, levels are expected to rise until late next week. Both the Day ahead contract and Spot market closed down by 6.90p per therm day-on-day.
Power Market
The heavy losses across the NBP curve weighed on GB Baseload futures on Wednesday. While the front month contract shed £2.10/MWh to close at £70.20/MWh the Q3 25 contract posted a £3.30/MWh loss to end the day at £72.80/MWh. A resurgence in wind power production levels helped to bring down the prompt market, with the Day ahead contract falling by £1.32/MWh day-on-day to settle at £82.40/MWh.
European carbon prices shed value on Wednesday as turmoil across financial and commodity markets drove contracts down. The EUA Spot contract fell by 95 cents to close the day at €60.00 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices bounced back from near four-year lows late on Wednesday after Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs against countries who had not retaliated and increased tariffs to 125% on China. The front month Brent contract posted a day-on-day gain of $2.66 to end the session at $65.48 a barrel. Despite the bounce, oil markets remain weak. A rising supply outlook, following the decision by OPEC+ to increase output in May, continues to limit gains. Meanwhile, concerns of a global recession persist considering the intensifying trade war between the U.S. and China. With U.S. and Chinese consumers facing price rises on everyday items, this could limit their purchasing ability and suppress demand.
Markets this morning
NBP prices have this morning retraced a portion of Wednesday’s losses, given the announcement from Donald Trump yesterday evening regarding a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on most countries. Gains have been limited however due to the increase in tariffs on China to 125% as well as their retaliatory tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods, both continuing to stoke economic concerns. The front month contract last went through at 85.70p per therm, down 2.49p day-on-day. Meanwhile crude oil markets have given back much of yesterday’s gains, with the front month Brent contract having last transacted at $63.83 a barrel, down $1.65 on the previous close.
10 April 2025
