Gas Market
The gas markets opened firmer on Thursday following a step back from President Trump as he paused the latest tariff increases for 90 days late on Wednesday. Near months for the NBP increased by around 4.50p per therm through the early part of the session but uncertainty in the markets and the possibility that the higher tariffs on China will reduce demand for LNG stalled gains and prices retreated off the early highs from late morning. At the close, the front month, May, settled at 81.18p down 5.72p intra-day or 1.03p day-on-day. Prompt prices held some of the early gains as GB gas demand was inflated to cover for lower wind generation in the power stack. The Spot and Day ahead products added half a penny to close at 83.50p.
Power Market
The turnaround in prices on the NBP curve weighed on baseload prices yesterday but higher carbon left the power curve slightly up for the day. The June contract bucked the trend and was assessed marginally lower for the day but generally contracts for the near curve were around £0.20/MWh up at the close. Carbon EUAs recovered some of the recent losses with contracts out to Dec-27 falling by 2.3% or €1.45 per tonne on average.
Baseload for the Day ahead was marginally down for the session with losses limited by a forecast for wind generation to decline on Friday. Generation from solar is expected to climb to almost 6.0GW on Friday, up from 3.5GW on Thursday.
Oil Market
The rebound in crude oil prices on Wednesday evening was short lived as both benchmarks slipped by over two dollars a barrel on Thursday. The U.S. administration confirmed tariffs on China stood at 145% after the latest reciprocal increases. U.S. stocks tumbled on fears that the trade war with China will lead to a recession which would suppress demand for crude oil in the world’s largest oil consumer. The Energy information Administration warned that demand growth for oil will be limited by tariffs as it released its latest report for oil. U.S. reserves of crude oil increased by 2.6m barrels last week, taking stocks to 442m barrels which is around 5.0% below the five-year average. Gasoline and distillate stock were down by 1.6m and 3.5m barrels respectively for the week. The June contract for Brent settled $2.15 down at $63.33 a barrel.
Markets this morning
An early deficit on the GB gas system has been balanced as demand for the day is pitched at 172mcm. Prompt prices have eased with the system being in equilibrium as the Spot and Day ahead are down 1.70p and 2.25p per therm respectively. NBP futures opened stronger this morning with May, the front month, peaking at 84.63p, however, reports that China is raising tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125% in retaliation to the U.S. tariffs has weighed on prices. May last traded at 82.06p which is down 2.57p intra-day or 0.12p from last night’s close. In the crude oil markets, Brent for June delivery is flat at $63.32 a barrel, having traded up to $64.37 a barrel earlier.
11 April 2025
