NBP curve contracts posted modest gains on Wednesday, with near months averaging increases of 0.37p per therm day-on-day.

Gas Market

NBP curve contracts posted modest gains on Wednesday, with near months averaging increases of 0.37p per therm day-on-day. The news on Tuesday that Donald Trump had officially delayed imposing higher tariffs on U.S. imports until 1st August moderately renewed the economic outlook and continued to support prices. The front month contract posted a 0.32p gain to close at 82.03p per therm, while the Winter 25 contact settled at 93.49p per therm, an increase of 0.40p day-on-day. Strong cooling demand levels driven by well above-average temperatures forecast over the coming days supported the Day ahead contract, which increased by 0.78p to settle at 82.95p per therm. The rest of the prompt saw day-on-day declines, led by higher renewable output forecasts from the weekend that should mitigate the higher cooling demand levels.  

Power Market

Reduced wind output and well above average temperatures supported the GB Baseload Day ahead contract yesterday. Day ahead increased by £1.88/MWh to close at £84.39/MWh. In contrast to much of the curve which followed the modest upward moves on the NBP, the front month GB Baseload contract shed £0.35/MWh to close out the day at £74.00/MWh. Meanwhile, the Winter 25 contract posted a £0.30/MWh gain to settle at £84.90/MWh. In a similar mood to much of the wider energy complex, movement across European carbon markets was muted on Wednesday. European Allowances for December 2025 gained just €0.20 to close at €70.60 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Movement across crude oil markets was muted on Wednesday, although prices still managed to settle in positive territory for a third consecutive day. After months of calm in the Red Sea, attacks in what is a major global shipping lane by Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthi rebels stoked supply fears across the market. Further upside was gleaned from an Energy Information Administration report that forecasted that the U.S. will produce less oil in 2025 than previously expected. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs continued to loom over market movements, with the front month Brent contract posting a 4 cent day-on-day gain to close at $70.19 a barrel. Meanwhile, the front month WTI contract was similarly flat, increasing by just 5 cents to settle at $68.38 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

The NBP curve has extended yesterday’s gains so far this morning. The front month contract last went through at 84.12p per therm, an increase of 2.09p day-on-day. Further out, the Winter 25 contract posted a gain of 1.31p at the last trade to currently sit at 94.80p per therm. The U.K. is set to enter a heatwave from tomorrow, which will put pressure on the gas system to meet high cool demand levels. Although increased renewable output in the power stack from the weekend should ease any upside. Oil markets are stable while the impact on Trump’s tariffs on global economic growth continued to be weighed up. The front month Brent contract last went through at $70.02 a barrel, a decline of 17 cents day-on-day.