Gas Market
Near-curve NBP gas prices eased on Thursday, with the front-month contract slipping as market confidence grew around the EU’s progress toward meeting its winter storage target. In contrast, contracts further along the curve were supported by strong gains in carbon markets. Although European gas storage remains 17.33% below 2024 levels, the gap has narrowed steadily from 26.35% in mid-April, aided by lower LNG demand in China, which has redirected more cargoes toward Europe. Additional downward pressure came from increased Norwegian flows into the UK, with import nominations rising from 62mcm/d to 70mcm/d. This boost in supply weighed on near-curve contracts, which fell by an average of 0.49p/th. Prompt prices also declined, with the Day-Ahead dropping 2.42p to 77.10p/therm.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices were mixed on Thursday, with the front-month contract falling by £0.47 to £72.50/MWh, pressured by strong wind generation, which averaged 3.6GW. This increase in renewable output weighed on prompt pricing, pushing the Day-Ahead contract down £1.25 to £80.75/MWh. Further along the curve, however, prices moved higher, with the Winter-25 contract gaining £1.20, supported by a rebound in UK carbon prices.
European carbon markets saw their strongest gains in over three weeks, as the Dec-25 EUA contract rallied €1.60 to settle at €70.89/tonne, rebounding sharply after rejecting a key technical support level. The UKA 2025 contract also advanced, climbing £0.96 (1.9%) to £50.35/tonne, lending further support to longer-dated power contracts.
Oil Market
Oil prices strengthened on Thursday, supported by news that Russia plans to cut gasoline exports and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude rose 67 cents to settle at $69.18/bbl, buoyed by a tightening supply outlook after Russia threatened to restrict exports to all but a few allied nations. U.S. EIA data showed crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, twice the forecast 1.6-million-barrel draw. Brief supply disruptions at Turkey’s Ceyhan port and Russia’s Black Sea terminals also added support. Though now resolved, the two ports account for around 2.5% of global supply, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to export risks. The front-month contract settled higher for the first time since mid-last week, though gains were capped late in the session by reports that the U.S. may grant Chevron a licence to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially increasing future supply.
Markets This Morning
UK gas and power markets are edging higher this morning after a weak close on Thursday, with traders closely watching Norwegian flows and evolving demand signals. Near-curve gas contracts are down just 0.35p/th on average, as a 4mcm/d increase in UK demand is being offset by a larger 10mcm/d rise in Norwegian supply. In oil markets, Brent crude is trading slightly higher, up 19 cents at $69.37/bbl, supported by renewed optimism around U.S.-EU trade negotiations, which has lifted sentiment for global economic growth and oil demand. This helped balance reports that the U.S. may grant Chevron a licence to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially boosting global supply.
25 July 2025
