Gas Market
Gas prices strengthened sharply on Monday as near-curve NBP contracts traded bullishly on tightening fundamentals. The front-month contract rose 5.40p, or 7.4%, to 78.55p/therm, while the day-ahead gained 6.15p to 79.65p/therm amid lower wind generation forecast over the next two weeks, pushing prices to multi-week highs. Support came from tighter storage levels, downward revisions to wind generation, and renewed cold risk, with a prolonged cold spell in Central and Eastern Europe underpinning higher demand and threatening to widen the EU gas storage deficit, already around 12.29% or 12bcm below last year. Higher carbon prices added further support, alongside rising geopolitical risk linked to unrest in Iran and potential disruption to LNG flows via the Strait of Hormuz. While the UK is due to receive around 10 LNG cargoes over the next two weeks, offering some relief later in the month, near-term tightness remained the dominant theme with gas for power demand set to rise 12mcm/d to 90mcm/d next week amid wind speeds continuing to decrease.
Power Market & Carbon
Power markets strengthened on Monday on tighter north-west European fundamentals. GB baseload futures rose in line with gas, with the front-month contract up £5.60 to £88.50/MWh, while the UK day-ahead surged 17.1% to £89/MWh as downward wind revisions boosted gas-for-power demand. Nuclear outages on the continent continued to lend support to European power prices, reinforcing the firmer tone across the market.
Carbon prices also moved higher, driven by a tightening supply backdrop. Reduced auction volumes and continued speculative buying lifted the benchmark EUA contract by 0.6% on the day to settle at €90.10/tonne, its highest level since July 2023.
Oil Market
Oil prices climbed and settled at seven-week highs on Monday as traders grew increasingly uneasy about supply from Iran amid intensifying domestic unrest. Brent futures rose by 53 cents, or about 0.8%, to finish at $63.87 a barrel, marking the highest settlement since mid-November. The gains were underpinned by worries that Iran’s crude exports could fall if tightening controls on anti-government demonstrations further disrupt flows. At the same time, Iran currently has an unusually large volume of oil afloat, roughly equivalent to around 50 days of its output, after China trimmed purchases in response to sanctions pressures. Price increases were capped by expectations of a renewed supply boost from Venezuela following political change there. The U.S. government has signalled that up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned Venezuelan crude could be channelled into U.S. markets. On balance, tight focus on potential export constraints from key producers underpinned the session’s strength in oil prices.
Markets this morning
This morning near-curve NBP contracts continued their bullish run, with the front month trading up 3.64p at 82.19p/therm and the day-ahead rising 4.35p to 84p/therm amid forecasts of higher demand and short covering. Lower wind generation over the next two weeks is seen lifting gas-for-power needs, while geopolitical tensions around Iran are adding a risk premium to prices. Asian demand remains relatively subdued, with Chinese buyers even reselling cargoes, though below-normal temperatures in parts of the region could bolster consumption and compete for LNG supplies. Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as heightened concerns surrounding Iran lifted front month Brent crude up $1.18 to $65.05/bbl.
13 January 2026
