Gas Market
NBP futures edged higher on Friday after two days of declines. The market had eased earlier in the session with near months down around a penny before recovering from the late morning. Near months ended the session just over a penny higher day-on-day but were down an average of 3.50p per therm for the week. The July contract settled at 97.80p on its penultimate day for the NBP front month while the Winter contract closed at 102.94p, up 0.91p day-on-day but down just over 4.00p for the month. After the attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, confidence in the ceasefire has been dented and the U.S. retaliated late on Friday, targeting Iran’s missile storage sites. Prompt prices rose on Friday with demand expected to increase to compensate for lower wind generation in the power stack.
Power Market
GB baseload futures oscillated between losses and gains early on Friday before finding support in the recovering gas futures on the NBP. The Front month settled just £0.10/MWh higher at £90.75/MWh, which trimmed the week’s loss to £4.05/MWh. The Winter-26 contract added £0.50/MWh to settled at £95.00/MWh on Friday. Baseload for Monday eased by 2.6% or £2.93/MWh from Friday’s price, the Weekend price dipped to £81.68/MWh on forecasts for strong wind and solar performances for Saturday and Sunday.
Carbon continued to ease on Friday as market linkage looms large. The reform is expected to prompt investors to reassess long positions. The Spot for EUA settled at €79.30 per tonne, posting a decline of 39 cent for the day or 17 cent/ tonne for the week.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices fell by more than 4.0% on Friday despite an attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz the previous day. Iran used a drone to attack a cargo vessel after earlier declaring that shipping should use designated routes passing through the channel. The number of oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz has been increasing at a rate higher than expected which is pressuring prices. Reports that Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading at its Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf also weighed on crude oil prices as two large tankers which can take up to 2 million barrels began loading while another vessel waiting to be filled was close by. Brent settled $3.27 down at $71.99, the lowest settlement for Brent since 26-Feb-26. News that the U.S. targeted Iran’s missile storage sites came late on Friday and after the market had settled for the day.
Markets this morning
Reports of retaliatory strikes from the U.S. and Iran over the weekend have threatened the fragile ceasefire and the energy markets have opened firmer this morning. Both sides have agreed to stand down attacks this morning, but NBP futures have increased by over 3.00p per therm. It’s the final day of trading for the July contract on the ICE platform and the outgoing front month last exchanged at 101.00p while the August contract is up 3.4% or 3.37p to 101.17p per therm. Prompt prices have also bounced higher this morning with the Day ahead product adding 3.88p to last trade at 102.00p. In the crude oil markets, Brent for August delivery is 0.9% or 65 cents up at $72.64 a barrel.
