Gas Market
NBP contracts edged up on Friday, retracing most of the previous session’s losses. Outside of the front month, which gained 1.11p per therm day-on-day, near months averaged increases of a modest 0.39p per therm. Traders appear to be tentative to any potential supply risk, such as the impending start to planned maintenance on the Langeled pipeline, which likely elevated contracts across the near curve. The Spot market shed 0.30p day-on-day to finish at 85.20p per therm on a long system and comfortable pipeline supplies. In contrast, the rest of the prompt made gains, with the Day ahead contract increasing by 1.55p to close at 86.70p per therm, driven by forecasts of low wind estimates expected to feed into higher gas-for-power demand.
Power Market
Prices across the GB Baseload curve traded flat day-on-day on Friday with near months trading £0.21/MWh higher on average. The biggest gain was seen on the Summer 26 contract which increased by £0.72/MWh on the previous close. Prompt contracts traded in positive territory despite strong wind output and solar production forecasted over the coming week, owning to the unplanned outage on the IFA2 interconnector. Day ahead closed up by £20.00/MWh day-on-day at £58.00/MWh.
European carbon prices completed a fourth straight day of declines on Friday as selling interest continued to outweigh the influence from buyers. The Dec-24 EUA contract shed €0.38 a tonne to finish at €71.43 a tonne.
Oil Market
Despite an uptick in prices, fundamentals remained weak across crude oil markets on Friday. Renewed ceasefire talks in Gaza eased worries around supply risk as U.S. and Israeli delegations continued to try to resolve differences over a truce proposal. Weak U.S. unemployment data as well as the ongoing concerns around China’s demand growth kept the market soft, with front month Brent ending the session down by 0.82% week-on-week. Day-on-day the contract was up by $1.80 a barrel, driven by a fall in the value of the dollar which lifted demand for dollar-denominated markets such as oil, as well as fresh indications that the U.S Federal Reserve was preparing to cut U.S. interest rates. The front month WTI contract moved up by $1.82 day-on-day to close at $74.83 a barrel.
Markets this morning
There are no gas markets in the UK today due to the August bank holiday. Gas demand is pitched at 145mcm for today and the system is showing a modest surplus of 6.5mcm. The carbon EUA market is active, with contracts for 2024 and 2025 edging down day-on-day so far. Brent oil prices have extended Friday’s gains on fears of a further escalation of fighting in Gaza which could disrupt regional oil supplies. Front month Brent last transacted at $79.76 a barrel, up $0.74 on Friday’s close.
26 August 2024
